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Climate Change Pictures: Weird Global Anomalies
Earth’s climate systems are extraordinarily complex, producing every moment of the day weather, strangest weather and climate conditions of all varieties. Predicting the weather even a few days into the future remains an imperfect science riddled with challenges only made larger by climate change.  Climate Strangest Weather Some of these unusual weather events appear to be occurring with greater frequency as shifts in the Earth’s climate continue to accelerate. Last year - 2019 - was the second hottest recorded year on earth. Below You Can Find 37 Examples Of The Strangest Weather Events Incl. Video: 1. Lenticular Clouds Lenticular Clouds have a round disc shape that has actually meant they have been the explanation for some UFO sightings. The stationary clouds normally form in perpendicular alignment to the wind direction. 2. Record-high temperatures No one would classify a heat wave as a rare weather phenomenon. In the context of meteorological records, however, the high temperatures documented in the past decade are among the most unusual climate events in recorded human history. Last year 2019 and 2018 were the second and fourth hottest years ever recorded on Earth. The 20 warmest years globally all occurred in the last 22 years. Recommended:  Bushfires Australia Generate Their Own Weather In the video below: Fire Devil, Fog Tsunami, Water Spout, Morning Glory clouds, Penienties, Ice Tsunami, Lenticular clouds, sand storm, red Rainbow   {youtube}                                                          20 Strangest Weather Phenomena - That Actually Exist   3. Gustnadoes Gustnadoes are not a type of tornado. NOAA classifies the weather phenomenon as 'thunderstorm wind events'. Unlike tornadoes, the root of a gustnado is not connected to the base of a cloud, rather the vortex rises from the ground. 4. Asperitas clouds Scientists named asperitas clouds after the latin word 'aspero', which means aggravate, enrage, and roughen and was used during the classical era to describe stormy seas. NOAA considers these clouds 'other cloud phenomenon', characterized by long rippling waves through the base of the cloud. Recommended:  Climate Change: Hurricane Season With Big And Wet Storms 5. Microbursts A microburst is a small version of a downburst, which is a column of sinking air with high-speed winds associated with thunderstorms. Similar to a tornado, microbursts can cause significant damage to buildings and landscapes and are also a threat to aircraft. Microbursts are less than 2.5 miles in scale, and extreme ones can produce wind speeds up to 150 mph. They can be either wet, dry, or a hybrid of the two. 6. Brinicle First discovered in the 1960's a brinicle forms below sea ice when a flow of very cold saline water meets an area of ocean water forming the equivalent of an underwater icicle. Recommended: Breaking: Did You Know, All You Read About CO2 Rise Is Half The Truth 7. Hail glaciers Hail glaciers are large accumulations of hail that can stay frozen for some time. In 2004, in Clayton, New Mexico, 15 foot deep ice “glaciers” formed along riverbanks following a summer hail storm. The ice remained for nearly a month. Such hail glaciers have been documented on a few other occasions in locations in the American Southwest, including Dalhart and Amarillo, Texas, and most recently in the Mexican city of Guadalajara in June of 2019. Recommended:  Delay Climate Change With Submarines Which Produce Icebergs 8. Derechos A derecho is a rare type of severe thunderstorm event. It is a long-lived, wide wind storm with showers or thunderstorms that typically moves in a straight line. A derecho often creates striking visual formations as ominous shelf clouds approach. By definition, derechos must include winds of at least 58 mph along most of their length and produce a swath of wind damage that is at least 240 miles long. 9. Mammatus clouds Mammatus clouds occur when a large base cloud develops a series of smaller, round protuberances on the underside. While they can occur in different types of clouds, they are most often seen on cumulonimbus clouds  towering cloud formations with flat bases. They occur when ice crystals fall out of the cloud and turn to water vapor, cooling the air around them, creating the sunken pockets indicative of mammatus formations. 10. Frost Flowers These frost flowers in the Arctic ocean form from imperfections on the surface of the ice in sub-zero temperatures, normally around the -20C mark. The spikes have been found to contain microorganisms making them temporary miniature ecosystems similar to coral reef. 11. Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds Resembling a series of rolling ocean waves, Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds often form when two adjacent layers of atmospheric air are moving at different speeds. Their presence may indicate atmospheric instability and turbulence for aircraft. They may also have been the inspiration behind Van Gogh’s famous painting Starry Night. Recommended:  Solar Geo-Engineering As The Ultimate Answer To Climate Change 12. St. Elmo’s fire Most often occurring during thunderstorms at sea, St. Elmo’s Fire is a burst of plasma, or ionized air that glows blue and can cause tall structures such as ships masts or church steeples to appear to be on fire. It occurs when an imbalance in electrical charge causes molecules to rip apart. 13. Thundersleet Thundersleet happens when a thunderstorm occurs simultaneously with a sleet storm. Like thundersnow, this phenomenon is extremely rare and occurs when the friction created by strong up and downdrafts causes charged particles to collide within a cloud. 14. Fallstreak holes These picturesque elliptical holes that can appear in cirrocumulus or altocumulus clouds are caused by tiny water droplets within the cloud that are colder than freezing but have yet to turn to ice. Once a triggering event such as a plane flying through the clouds causes the supercooled droplets to start freezing, they rapidly crystalize and fall, leaving a hole in the cloud layer. 15.  Twin tornadoes With about 1,200 occurrences every year, tornadoes are relatively common weather events in the United States. While it is also normal for clusters of tornadoes to form at a time, multiple smaller vortexes almost always combine or orbit a single parent tornado. For more than one tornado of a sizable magnitude to coexist, conditions have to be unusually balanced. This dangerous and rare phenomena occurs on average once every 10 to 15 years. Recommended:  Rescue Globally: Human Blood Can Help Prevent Climate Change 16. Nacreous clouds Rare but made more common by climate change, nacreous or noctilucent clouds form from ice crystals and methane at high altitudes. Nick-named “mother of pearl” clouds, they appear in temperatures of approximately negative 110 F. The ice crystals refract light, producing a glimmery, iridescent look. According to NOAA, it is likely that these weather phenomena did not exist before 1885. 17.  Tubular clouds Tubular clouds, a type of arcus cloud also known as roll cloud, form low and horizontally in the sky. They tend to form along the edges or in the downdrafts of thunderstorms. While relatively rare and ominous-looking, these clouds are not usually a sign of dangerous weather. Before you go! Recommended:  Bushfires Australia Generate Their Own Weather Did you find this an interesting article or do you have a question or remark? Leave a comment below. We try to respond the same day. Like to write your own experience with strange weather? Click on  'Register'  or push the button 'Write An Article' on the  'HomePage'
Earth’s climate systems are extraordinarily complex, producing every moment of the day weather, strangest weather and climate conditions of all varieties. Predicting the weather even a few days into the future remains an imperfect science riddled with challenges only made larger by climate change.  Climate Strangest Weather Some of these unusual weather events appear to be occurring with greater frequency as shifts in the Earth’s climate continue to accelerate. Last year - 2019 - was the second hottest recorded year on earth. Below You Can Find 37 Examples Of The Strangest Weather Events Incl. Video: 1. Lenticular Clouds Lenticular Clouds have a round disc shape that has actually meant they have been the explanation for some UFO sightings. The stationary clouds normally form in perpendicular alignment to the wind direction. 2. Record-high temperatures No one would classify a heat wave as a rare weather phenomenon. In the context of meteorological records, however, the high temperatures documented in the past decade are among the most unusual climate events in recorded human history. Last year 2019 and 2018 were the second and fourth hottest years ever recorded on Earth. The 20 warmest years globally all occurred in the last 22 years. Recommended:  Bushfires Australia Generate Their Own Weather In the video below: Fire Devil, Fog Tsunami, Water Spout, Morning Glory clouds, Penienties, Ice Tsunami, Lenticular clouds, sand storm, red Rainbow   {youtube}                                                          20 Strangest Weather Phenomena - That Actually Exist   3. Gustnadoes Gustnadoes are not a type of tornado. NOAA classifies the weather phenomenon as 'thunderstorm wind events'. Unlike tornadoes, the root of a gustnado is not connected to the base of a cloud, rather the vortex rises from the ground. 4. Asperitas clouds Scientists named asperitas clouds after the latin word 'aspero', which means aggravate, enrage, and roughen and was used during the classical era to describe stormy seas. NOAA considers these clouds 'other cloud phenomenon', characterized by long rippling waves through the base of the cloud. Recommended:  Climate Change: Hurricane Season With Big And Wet Storms 5. Microbursts A microburst is a small version of a downburst, which is a column of sinking air with high-speed winds associated with thunderstorms. Similar to a tornado, microbursts can cause significant damage to buildings and landscapes and are also a threat to aircraft. Microbursts are less than 2.5 miles in scale, and extreme ones can produce wind speeds up to 150 mph. They can be either wet, dry, or a hybrid of the two. 6. Brinicle First discovered in the 1960's a brinicle forms below sea ice when a flow of very cold saline water meets an area of ocean water forming the equivalent of an underwater icicle. Recommended: Breaking: Did You Know, All You Read About CO2 Rise Is Half The Truth 7. Hail glaciers Hail glaciers are large accumulations of hail that can stay frozen for some time. In 2004, in Clayton, New Mexico, 15 foot deep ice “glaciers” formed along riverbanks following a summer hail storm. The ice remained for nearly a month. Such hail glaciers have been documented on a few other occasions in locations in the American Southwest, including Dalhart and Amarillo, Texas, and most recently in the Mexican city of Guadalajara in June of 2019. Recommended:  Delay Climate Change With Submarines Which Produce Icebergs 8. Derechos A derecho is a rare type of severe thunderstorm event. It is a long-lived, wide wind storm with showers or thunderstorms that typically moves in a straight line. A derecho often creates striking visual formations as ominous shelf clouds approach. By definition, derechos must include winds of at least 58 mph along most of their length and produce a swath of wind damage that is at least 240 miles long. 9. Mammatus clouds Mammatus clouds occur when a large base cloud develops a series of smaller, round protuberances on the underside. While they can occur in different types of clouds, they are most often seen on cumulonimbus clouds  towering cloud formations with flat bases. They occur when ice crystals fall out of the cloud and turn to water vapor, cooling the air around them, creating the sunken pockets indicative of mammatus formations. 10. Frost Flowers These frost flowers in the Arctic ocean form from imperfections on the surface of the ice in sub-zero temperatures, normally around the -20C mark. The spikes have been found to contain microorganisms making them temporary miniature ecosystems similar to coral reef. 11. Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds Resembling a series of rolling ocean waves, Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds often form when two adjacent layers of atmospheric air are moving at different speeds. Their presence may indicate atmospheric instability and turbulence for aircraft. They may also have been the inspiration behind Van Gogh’s famous painting Starry Night. Recommended:  Solar Geo-Engineering As The Ultimate Answer To Climate Change 12. St. Elmo’s fire Most often occurring during thunderstorms at sea, St. Elmo’s Fire is a burst of plasma, or ionized air that glows blue and can cause tall structures such as ships masts or church steeples to appear to be on fire. It occurs when an imbalance in electrical charge causes molecules to rip apart. 13. Thundersleet Thundersleet happens when a thunderstorm occurs simultaneously with a sleet storm. Like thundersnow, this phenomenon is extremely rare and occurs when the friction created by strong up and downdrafts causes charged particles to collide within a cloud. 14. Fallstreak holes These picturesque elliptical holes that can appear in cirrocumulus or altocumulus clouds are caused by tiny water droplets within the cloud that are colder than freezing but have yet to turn to ice. Once a triggering event such as a plane flying through the clouds causes the supercooled droplets to start freezing, they rapidly crystalize and fall, leaving a hole in the cloud layer. 15.  Twin tornadoes With about 1,200 occurrences every year, tornadoes are relatively common weather events in the United States. While it is also normal for clusters of tornadoes to form at a time, multiple smaller vortexes almost always combine or orbit a single parent tornado. For more than one tornado of a sizable magnitude to coexist, conditions have to be unusually balanced. This dangerous and rare phenomena occurs on average once every 10 to 15 years. Recommended:  Rescue Globally: Human Blood Can Help Prevent Climate Change 16. Nacreous clouds Rare but made more common by climate change, nacreous or noctilucent clouds form from ice crystals and methane at high altitudes. Nick-named “mother of pearl” clouds, they appear in temperatures of approximately negative 110 F. The ice crystals refract light, producing a glimmery, iridescent look. According to NOAA, it is likely that these weather phenomena did not exist before 1885. 17.  Tubular clouds Tubular clouds, a type of arcus cloud also known as roll cloud, form low and horizontally in the sky. They tend to form along the edges or in the downdrafts of thunderstorms. While relatively rare and ominous-looking, these clouds are not usually a sign of dangerous weather. Before you go! Recommended:  Bushfires Australia Generate Their Own Weather Did you find this an interesting article or do you have a question or remark? Leave a comment below. We try to respond the same day. Like to write your own experience with strange weather? Click on  'Register'  or push the button 'Write An Article' on the  'HomePage'
Climate Change Pictures: Weird Global Anomalies
Global Cooling Or Warming: Does CO2 Matter?
Global Cooling Or Warming: CO2 Matters Because It Doesn’t. Well this a very confusing, conflicting expression which exactly 'covers the load'. Sure there must be a moment when you were reading or watching a documentry about climate change and then especially the influence of humans on it that you thought; 'But there are so many natural contributers to climate change'! Global Cooling Or Warming: In the media global warming is mainly focused on the amount of CO2 humanity has added since the industrial revolution, thus causing the Earth warming up. Is there a reason to 'only' focus on CO2 because it is the 'reason' our Earth is warming up or are there other interests or reasons? Well I, we believe the climate is changing. Nature does the climate changing so humanity. If you are with 7.8 billion people the influnece of a group this big is measurable. The biggest question is; what is the influence from humanity in compare with natural cycles?  I am increasingly surprised that until the 1970s we considered the climate as the result of the action of the great forces of nature (the influence of the sun, the thermostat action of the water, as vapor, liquid and ice, the effects of the heat flows in the mantle and the effect on volcanism, on land and under water, and perhaps even the effect of greenhouses on that thin shell atmosphere). Then suddenly AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming) came into view and those large forces of nature, which of course continue to work, were left out of consideration. Why did that happen? Photo by Tim Mossholder Index Global Coorling Or Warming: Jump quickly to subject by clicking on: Some Thoughts Is It Just About The Balance Sudden change of CO2 levels Natural Why The Eemian Is So Bad For The Theory Of Global Warming A Brief History Of CO2 Primary Forcing Mechanisms Key Parameters For Climate Change: Nature Key Parameters For Climate Change: Humans Why Doesn’t The Temperature Rise At The Same Rate That CO2 Increases? Climate Sensitivity CO2 Lags Temperature CO2 Matters Because It Doesn’t: Politics Global Cooling Or Warming. CO2 Matters Because It Doesn’t: Conclusion   Global Cooling Or Warming: Some Thoughts The article below is just an observation from a 'person' reading newspapers, watching the news, reading some scientific magazines and watching documentries relating to climate change. The first impression is that there are many ideas about the cause and effect of certain processes. For sure there is no consensus about what exactly makes our climate what it is today but the media does make you often think there is one reason and that's the rise of CO2!  Photo by: Callum Shaw There are many questions coming up if it is about Earth's climate: how reliable are the outcomes of research from ice cores? What does it tell about the temperature and amount of CO2 in other parts of the world? Are we too focused on changes in a humans lifetime, or from the moment we started to measure temperatures, CO2 and other parameters which all makes our climate. What is the influence of TV and the internet seeing many kinds of weather/climate related events which maybe amplify our opinion its getting ‘worse than ever before’? Are there political and economical reasons mainly to focus on CO2? Is it done to make the issue of climate change small and understandable for civilians like me or does it fit an ‘other agenda’? CO2 Matters Because It Doesn’t There is a lot of evidence humanity is producing a lot of CO2 which 'partly' ends up in our atmosphere. Not a lot off attention is paid to the fact that a lot of CO2 is sucked up less by the still available amount of 'plants' and organisms in oceans. Would it not be wise to stop the pollution of the oceans so it can suck up 'again' more CO2. The point is, we focus 'too much' on producing CO2 instead of also to focus on natural processes and what 'could store CO2 more'. Stopping polution ending up in oceans seams hardly an issue while it could make a hudge difference. Imagen that the amount of phytoplankton was still intact, the oceans could suck up much more CO2. So instead of having 414 ppm nowadays we 'could have' around 360 ppm. Recommended:  Breaking: Did You Know, All You Read About CO2 Rise Is Half The Truth   CO2 Matters: Is It Just About Disturbing The Balance? Human CO2 is a tiny percentage of all natural CO2 emissions. The oceans contain 37,400 billion tons (GT) of suspended carbon, land biomass has 2.000-3.000 GT. The atmosphere contains 720 billion tons of CO2 and humans contribute only 6 GT additional load on this balance. The oceans, land and atmosphere exchange CO2 continuously so the additional load by humans is incredibly small. A small shift in the balance between oceans and air would cause CO2 much more severe rise than anything we could produce.   Global Cooling Or Warming: Can CO2 Levels 'Suddenly' Change By Natural Processes The answer is yes. A good example is the Younger Dryas episode. The Younger Dryas episode demonstrates that major climate change (almost as big as the difference between an ice age and modern climate and covering a large region, such as the North Atlantic basin), can occur in a few decades . Very rapid but less persistent changes to conditions outside the range experienced in the last few hundred years have also taken place since the last retreat of the ice. Such changes may result entirely from the internal mechanisms of the atmosphere and oceans, or they may be caused by events such as very large explosive volcanic eruptions. And the other way around, the three abrupt pulses of CO2 during last deglaciation: A new multi-institutional study including Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, shows that the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide that contributed to the end of the last ice age more than 10,000 years ago did not occur gradually, but was characterized by three 'pulses' in which CO2 rose abruptly . Scientists are not sure what caused these abrupt increases, during which levels of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, rose about 10-15 parts per million (ppm) – or about five percent per episode – over a period of one to two centuries . It likely was a combination of factors, they say, including: ocean circulation, changing wind patterns, and terrestrial processes . Scripps geoscientist Jeff Severinghaus said the three episodes, which took place 16,100 years ago, 14,700 years ago, and 11,700 years ago are strongly linked to abrupt climate change events that took place in the Northern Hemisphere. The rate of change during these events is still significantly less than present-day changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The Keeling Curve record of atmospheric carbon dioxide, launched by the late Scripps geochemist Charles David Keeling, recorded levels of 315 ppm when it began in 1958. In 2014, monthly average concentrations reached 401 ppm, an increase of more than 85 parts per million in less than 60 years. Now in 2020 it is 416 ppm. The overall rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide during the last deglaciation was thought to have been triggered by the release of CO2 from the deep ocean, especially the Southern Ocean. But the century-scale events must involve a different mechanism that can act faster, said Severinghaus. One possibility is a major increase in the winds that blow around Antarctica , which are known to bring up CO2 from mid-depths and cause it to outgas into the atmosphere. Recommended:  Climate Change On Earth Caused By Jupiter And Venus Eemian Rapid Climate Change Temperatures similar to those of the most recent 10,000 years have been reached during previous interglacials, which have occurred approximately each 100,000 years over the last 700,000 years in response to features of earth’s orbit. Each of these interglacials was slightly different from the others, at least in part because the orbital parameters do not repeat exactly. The penultimate interglacial, about 125,000 years ago, is known by several names including the Eemian, Sangamonian, and marine isotope stage 5e (with the different terminologies originating in different disciplines or geographic regions and being broadly but not identically equivalent).   Why The Eemian Is So Bad For The Theory Of Global Warming This part is about the high temperatures of the Eemian and the high 65N insolation (The 65th parallel north is a circle of latitude that is 65 degrees north of the Earth's equatorial plane. It crosses the Atlantic Ocean, Europe, Asia and North America). The Eemian was 5C warmer than the Earth currently is with a max CO2 level of 285 ppm and it was really 270-280 for most of the time. But it had a temperature that the theory of global warming associates with almost 2 full doublings of CO2. So imagen the CO2 level for that temperature is 1150 ppm. The Holocene had basically identical pre-industrial CO2 levels, but a temperature that was 5C lower than the Eemian. Let’s try to explain how the Earth was much, much warmer with CO2 levels that are lower than they are today. The reasonable and simple explanation is that 14% higher solar insolation (solar power, solar radiation) is the cause. The problem is that the theory of global warming has discounted 65N insolation as being capable of causing the glacial/interglacial cycle. It is very important to understand the significance of the very warm Eemian. Last Interglacial (relating to a period of milder climate between two glacial periods) orbital focing   {youtube}                             The Milankovitch Cycles can Produce Sudden Climate Transitions such as Modern Climate Change Holocene Rapid Climate Change The Holocene had basically identical pre-industrial CO2 levels, but a temperature that was 5C lower than the Eemian. Let’s try to explain how the Earth was much, much warmer with CO2 levels that are lower than they are today. The relevance of abrupt climate change of the ice age to the modern warm climate or future warmer climates is unclear. However, although glacial and deglacial rapid shifts in temperature were often larger than those of the Holocene (the last roughly 10,000 years), Holocene events were also important with respect to societally relevant climate change. For example, there were large rapid shifts in precipitation (droughts and floods) and in the size and frequency of hurricanes, typhoons, and El Niño/La Niña events. If they recurred, these kinds of changes would have large effects on society. It is not surprising that many past examples of societal collapse involved rapid climate change to some degree. Holocene Droughts The existing temperature records, as described above, make it clear that natural variability alone can generate regional to hemispheric temperature anomalies that are sufficient to affect many aspects of human activity. However, the record of hydrologic change over the last 2,000 years suggests even larger effects: there is ample evidence that decadal, even century-scale, drought can occur with little or no warning. The 4.2-kiloyear BP ( Before Present  means before 1950. The most commonly used convention in radiocarbon dating. 'Present' referring to the year 1950 AD. 1950 Is the date that the calibration curves were established.) aridification (the gradual change of a region from a wetter to a drier climate The onset of sudden aridification in Mesopotamia near 4100 calendar yr BP coincided with a widespread cooling in the North Atlantic) event was one of the most severe climatic events of the Holocene epoch. It defines the beginning of the current Meghalayan age in the Holocene epoch. Starting in about 2200 BC, it probably lasted the entire 22nd century BC. It has been hypothesised to have caused the collapse of the Old Kingdom in Egypt as well as the Akkadian Empire in Mesopotamia, and the Liangzhu culture in   the lower Yangtze River area. The drought may also have initiated the collapse of the Indus Valley Civilisation, with some of its population moving southeastward to follow the movement of their desired habitat, as well as the migration of Indo-European-speaking people into India. Holocene Floods Just as the twentieth century instrumental record is too short to understand the full range of drought, it is too short to understand how the frequency of large floods has changed. Data on past hydrological conditions from the upper Mississippi River and from sediments in the Gulf of Mexico record large, abrupt shifts in flood regimes in the Holocene, which may have been linked to major jumps in the location of the lower Mississippi (delta-lobe switching). In the western United States, there is growing evidence that flood regimes distinctly different from today, and also episodic in time, were the norm rather than the exception. The frequency of large floods in the Lower Colorado River Basin, for example, appears to have varied widely over the last 5,000 years, with increased frequency from about 5,000-4,000 years ago, then lower frequency until about 2,000 years ago, and some abrupt shifts up, down, and back up thereafter. Those flood-frequency fluctuations and substantial fluctuations elsewhere around the world appear to be linked to climate shifts but in poorly understood ways. Clearly, a predictive understanding of megadroughts and large floods must await further research.   Global Cooling Or Warming: A Brief History Of The Earth's CO2 Climate change has been described as one of the biggest problems faced by humankind. This gas has played a crucial role in shaping the Earth's climate. Carbon dioxide (CO2) has been present in the atmosphere since the Earth condensed from a ball of hot gases following its formation from the explosion of a huge star about five billion years ago. At that time the atmosphere was mainly composed of nitrogen, CO2 and water vapour, which seeped through cracks in the solid surface. A very similar composition emerges from volcanic eruptions today. Photo by: Iswanto Arif As the planet cooled further some of the water vapour condensed out to form oceans and they dissolved a portion of the CO2 but it was still present in the atmosphere in large amounts. The first life forms to evolve on Earth were microbes which could survive in this primordial atmosphere but about 2.5 billion years ago, plants developed the ability to photosynthesise, creating glucose and oxygen from CO2 and water in the presence of light from the Sun. This had a transformative impact on the atmosphere: as life developed, CO2 was consumed so that by around 20 million years ago its concentration was down to below 300 molecules in every one million molecules of air (or 300 parts per million - ppm). Life on Earth has evolved under these conditions - note that humans did not appear until about 200,000 years. Concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere were as high as 4,000 parts per million (ppm, on a molar basis) during the Cambrian period about 500 million years ago to as low as 180 ppm during the Quaternary glaciation of the last two million years. Reconstructed temperature records for the last 420 million years indicate that atmospheric CO2 concentrations peaked at ~2000 ppm during te Devonian (∼400 Myrs ago (million years)) period, and again in the Triassic (220–200 Myrs ago) period. Fossilized crinoids, marine invertebrates that lived during the Permian Period, found in western Australia. Scientists say the Great Dying, which wiped out 96 percent of all life in the oceans, was caused by global warming, which deprived the oceans of oxygen. Global annual mean CO2 concentration has increased by more than 45% since the start of the Industrial Revolution, from 280 ppm during the 10,000 years up to the mid-18th century to 415 ppm as of May 2019. The present concentration is the highest for 14 million years. The increase has been attributed to human activity and natural processes. This increase of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere has produced the current episode of global warming. Between 30% and 40% of the CO2 released by humans into the atmosphere dissolves into the oceans, wherein it forms carbonic acid and effects changes in the oceanic pH balance. CO2 plays an important role in climate because it is one of the atmospheric 'greenhouse' gases (GHGs) which keep the Earth's surface about 33 degrees warmer than the -18C temperature it would be at were they not present. Photo by: University of Cambridge. Liverworts are small green plants that don’t have roots, stems, leaves or flowers. They belong to a group of plants called Bryophytes, which also includes mosses and hornworts. Bryophytes diverged from other plant lineages early in the evolution of plants and are thought to be similar to some of the earliest diverging land plant lineages. Liverworts are found all over the world and are often seen growing as a weed in the cracks of paving or soil of potted plants. Marchantia polymorpha, which is also known as the common liverwort or umbrella liverwort, was used in this research.  They do this by being fairly transparent to the Sun's rays, allowing them through to warm the surface, but then absorbing the radiant heat that the surface emits, so trapping it and enhancing the warming. In the present climate the most effective GHGs are water vapour, which is responsible for about two-thirds of the total warming, and CO2 which accounts for about one quarter. Other gases, including methane, make up the remainder. The atmospheric concentration of water vapour is less than 1% and, with CO2 making up only a few molecules in every ten thousand of air, it may be surprising that they can have such a significant impact on the surface temperature. They are able to do this, however, because the structure of their molecules makes them especially effective at absorbing heat radiation while the major atmospheric gases, nitrogen and oxygen, are essentially transparent to it. The greenhouse effect means that as the atmospheric loading of GHGs increases the surface temperature of the Earth warms. Most significantly, the concentration of CO2 has been rising exponentially (at a rate of about 0.17% per year) since the industrial revolution, due mainly to the combustion of fossil fuels but also to large-scale tropical deforestation which depletes the climate system's capacity for photosynthesis. In 2015, it passed 400ppm, more than 40% higher than its pre-industrial value of 280ppm and a level that has not existed on Earth for several million years. While the basic science of how GHGs warm the Earth is very well understood, there are complications. The climate system responds in various ways which both enhance and ameliorate the effects of these gases. For example, a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapour (before it condenses out in clouds or rain) and because water vapour is a GHG, this increases the temperature rise. Another example: as the oceans warm they are less able to hold CO2 so release it, again with the result the initial warming is enhanced. Photo by: Sebastian Pena Lambarri The global temperature record over the past century does not show the same smooth increase presented by CO2 measurements because the climate is influenced by other factors than GHGs, arising from both natural and human sources. Some particles released into the atmosphere by industrial activities reflect sunshine back to space, tending to cool the planet. Similarly, large volcanic eruptions can eject small particles into the higher atmosphere, where they remain for up to about two years reducing the sunlight reaching the surface, and temporary dips in global temperature have indeed been measured following major volcanic events. Changes in the energy emitted by the Sun also affect surface temperature, though measurements of the solar output show this effect to be small on human timescales. Another important consideration in interpreting global temperatures is that the climate is inherently complex. Energy moves between the atmosphere and oceans in natural fluctuations - an example being El Niño events. This means that we cannot expect an immediate direct relationship between any influencing factor and surface temperature. All these factors complicate the picture. Notably, during the ice ages which have occurred roughly every 100,000 years over at least the past half million, drops in global temperature of perhaps 5C have been accompanied by reductions in CO2 concentration to less than 200ppm. The ice ages, and associated warmer interglacial periods, are brought about by changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun which take place on these long timescales. The cooling in response to a decline in solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface results in a greater uptake of CO2 by the oceans and so further cooling due to a weakened greenhouse effect. This is an entirely natural phenomenon and it is worth noting that such amplification of temperature fluctuations will occur in response to any initiating factor regardless of its source and including human-produced greenhouse gases. The effects of increasing CO2 are not limited to an increase in air temperature. As the oceans warm they are expanding so producing a rise in sea level, this being exacerbated by the melting of some of the ice present on land near the poles and in glaciers. The warmer atmosphere holds more water vapour resulting in increased occurrences of heavy rainfall and flooding while changes in weather patterns are intensifying droughts in other regions.   Global Cooling Or Warming: Primary Forcing Mechanism The Natural Climate Pulse of Earth Introduction The earth's climate pulse cycles are governed by cycles of the Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM). These cycles range from daily (ocean tides) and more importantly every 6 months, 4 years, 9 years, 18 years, 72 years, 230 years, 1200 years and 130 thousand years.  Earth is currently coming off a 230 year global warming cycle and dipping into a 120 year global cooling cycle .  They come approximately every 230 years and we have have had 5 during the past 1000 years.  The last one ended in the year 1800 and was followed by dramatic cooling and a year of no summer in 1816. Photo by: Anton Foltin. rare snowfall in Arizona During early stages of each global cooling cycle, historically strong volcanic activity usually occurs, resulting in unusually cold summer weather, worldwide crop failures, famine and disease. This scenario is not merely a coincidence, it happened in global cooling cycles with the volcano Eldgja in 934 AD, Ringitoto in 1350, Huaynaputina in 1600, Tambora in 1815, and will likely occur again during the upcoming dramatic global cooling cycle that will begin soon. Ever since planet Earth was created about 4.5 billion years ago, it has been exposed to natural processes and forcing mechanisms within the solar system and earth. During the course of millions of years, the interaction of these processes has implemented a natural climate and planetary rhythm.  These rhythms include but are not limited to:  day and night, the four annual seasons and weather events during the particular season, short-term climate fluctuations and oscillations within the seasons, and long-term climate change cycles such as glacial periods which occur approximately every 120 thousand years. The gravitational cycles of the moon and sun cause the seasonal tilts of the earth's axis and the 4 seasons.  The strong gravitational pull of the moon causes a bulge to form in the center of the 5 oceans.  As the earth makes a complete rotation on its axis daily, the moon rises and falls in the sky.  This causes dramatic changes to the gravitational pull, with increases and decreases occurring during the daily cycle.  This causes a gravitational pulse which in turn causes an interactive plunging action on the ocean's bulge, thus producing the twice daily ocean tides. The gravitational tides are also noticed in the earth's atmosphere, and in lower depths of the ocean. Photo by: Dan Grinwis ​The daily rotation of the earth provides the twice daily tides, and the 27.5 day elliptical path of the moon around the earth provides a monthly and bi-monthly gravitational pulse.  The cycles then extend out in time as the elliptical path of the earth around the sun, and the moon around the earth cyclical change from one month to the next, every 6 months, 4 years, 9 years, 18 years and beyond.  The earths 130 thousand year elliptical path is well documented in science and is proven to be the cause for the earth's inter-glacial (warm) as the earth swings in closer to the sun, and glacial periods (cold)  that occur every 130 thousand years as the earth swings further away from the sun.  The current warm inter-glacial period peaked about 7 thousand years ago, and the peak of the next glacial period will be 70 to 110 thousand years from now. ​The Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate change is the combination of the elliptical paths of the moon and earth, changes in solar radiation and changes in the gravitational pulses and electromagnetic pulses. The PFM cycles control the Earth's 'atural Climate Pulse', and it is this Natural Pulse that controls weather and climate cycles here on earth.   ​The earth's climate is very complex and very cyclical due to the PFM (Primary Forcing Mechanism) Natural Climate Pulse interacting with the oceans, atmosphere and inner/outer cores of earth. The high and low tides of the oceans alternate approximately every 6 hours, and ocean tides and some currents change with the PFM cycles.   Above the surface of the Earth is the atmosphere which is made up of nitrogen, oxygen, water vapor and other gases which move fluidly around the planet.  The flow of these atmospheric gases are caused by the rotation of the earth, heating of the atmosphere and ground by the sun, proximity of mountain ranges and water bodies such as oceans, and forcing mechanisms such as gravitational tides caused by the PFM cycles    ​Earth's temperature changes seasonally due to the seasonal tilt of the earth, with longer term cycles due to the PFM Natural Pulse cycles every 10-years, 230 years and 130 thousand years. Carbon dioxide concentrations are a naturally occurring cycle connected to the short-term global warming cycles that occur approximately every 230 years, and the longer term 130 thousand year glacial and inter-glacial cycles. The eBook written by Mr. Dilley of GWO (avalable on the Natural Pulse Page) illustrates that earth's current temperatueres and carbon dioxide levels are perfectly normal for global warming cycle that was occurring up to the year 2012 (now beginning to slip into global cooling for the next 150 years). ​GWO’s nineteen (19) years of ongoing research uses a combination of Meteorology, Oceanography, Climatology, Geology and Astronomy along with extensive historical weather and climate data to develop techniques for climate prediction. The most significant discovery was that of the Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) which is highly correlated to short-term climate cycles. The combination resulted in the development of prediction models formulated from a subset of  the scientifically proven "Milankovitch" cycles of the  earth, moon and sun.     Global Cooling Or Warming: What Are The Key Parameters: Natural Below you can find a list of parameters what made earth climate to change from the moment our Earth had a atmosphere but before the apperance of humanity: Milanković-Parameters: Orbital eccentricity Axial tilt (obliquity) Axial precession Clouds In meteorology, a cloud is an aerosol consisting of a visible mass of minute liquid droplets, frozen crystals, or other particles suspended in the atmosphere of a planetary body or similar space. Water or various other chemicals may compose the droplets and crystals. On Earth, clouds are formed as a result of saturation of the air when it is cooled to its dew point, or when it gains sufficient moisture (usually in the form of water vapor) from an adjacent source to raise the dew point to the ambient temperature. They are seen in the Earth's homosphere (which includes the troposphere, stratosphere, and mesosphere). Nephology is the science of clouds, which is undertaken in the cloud physics branch of meteorology. Snow & Ice: The Albedo Effect Ice–albedo feedback is a positive feedback climate process where a change in the area of ice caps, glaciers, and sea ice alters the albedo and surface temperature of a planet. Ice is very reflective, therefore some of the solar energy is reflected back to space. Ice–albedo feedback plays an important role in global climate change. For instance at higher latitudes, we see warmer temperatures melt the ice sheets. However, if warm temperatures decrease the ice cover and the area is replaced by water or land the albedo would decrease. This increases the amount of solar energy absorbed, leading to more warming. The effect has mostly been discussed in terms of the recent trend of declining Arctic sea ice. The change in albedo acts to reinforce the initial alteration in ice area leading to more warming. Warming tends to decrease ice cover and hence decrease the albedo, increasing the amount of solar energy absorbed and leading to more warming. By: The Conversation In the geologically recent past, the ice-albedo positive feedback has played a major role in the advances and retreats of the Pleistocene (~2.6 Ma to ~10 Ma (mega-annum)) ice sheets. Inversely, cooler temperatures increase ice, which increases albedo, leading to more cooling. Vulcanoes Large-scale volcanic activity may last only a few days, but the massive outpouring of gases and ash can influence climate patterns for years. Sulfuric gases convert to sulfate aerosols, sub-micron droplets containing about 75 percent sulfuric acid. Following eruptions, these aerosol particles can linger as long as three to four years in the stratosphere. Major eruptions alter the Earth's radiative balance because volcanic aerosol clouds absorb terrestrial radiation, and scatter a significant amount of the incoming solar radiation, an effect known as "radiative forcing" that can last from two to three years following a volcanic eruption. "Volcanic eruptions cause short-term climate changes and contribute to natural climate variability," says Georgiy Stenchikov, a research professor with the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers University. "Exploring effects of volcanic eruption allows us to better understand important physical mechanisms in the climate system that are initiated by volcanic forcing." Recommended:  Taal Volcano: Hazardous Eruption Feared. What Is The Future? Nature: Plants & Animals Air Pressure: Arctic oscillation (AO) Is a weather phenomenon at the Arctic poles north of 20 degrees latitude. It is an important mode of climate variability for the Northern Hemisphere. Antarctic oscillation (AAO) The southern hemisphere analogue is called the Antarctic oscillation or Southern Annular Mode (SAM). The index varies over time with no particular periodicity, and is characterized by non-seasonal sea-level pressure anomalies of one sign in the Arctic, balanced by anomalies of opposite sign centered at about 37–45N North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) Is a weather phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level (SLP) between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. Through fluctuations in the strength of the Icelandic low and the Azores high, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and location of storm tracks across the North Atlantic.It is part of the Arctic oscillation, and varies over time with no particular periodicity Pacific-North American pattern (PNA) Is a climatological term for a large-scale weather pattern with two modes, denoted positive and negative, and which relates the atmospheric circulation pattern over the North Pacific Ocean with the one over the North American continent. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregularly periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña. The Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric component, coupled with the sea temperature change: El Niño is accompanied by high air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific and La Niña with low air surface pressure there. The two periods last several months each and typically occur every few years with varying intensity per period. Oceans & Sea surface temperature: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Trends of the SST Elevation  (altitude) Latitude In geography, latitude is a geographic coordinate that specifies the north–south position of a point on the Earth's surface. Latitude is an angle which ranges from 0° at the Equator to 90° (North or South) at the poles. Lines of constant latitude, or parallels, run east–west as circles parallel to the equator Proximity of large bodies of water Proximity to Water bodies: Large bodies of water such as oceans, seas, and large lakes affect the climate of an area. Water heats and cools more slowly than land. Therefore, in the summer, the coastal regions will stay cooler and in winter warmer. A more moderate climate with a smaller temperature range is created. Ocean currents An ocean current is a continuous, directed movement of sea water generated by a number of forces acting upon the water, including wind, the Coriolis effect, breaking waves, cabbeling (two separate water parcels mix to form a third which sinks below both parentsand temperature and salinity differences. Depth contours, shoreline configurations, and interactions with other currents influence a current's direction and strength. Ocean currents are primarily horizontal water movements. Proximity of mountain ranges (topography) A mountain's height above sea level is called its elevation with its highest point called a summit or peak. A mountain range is a group or chain of mountains located close together. Since neighboring mountains often share the same geological origins, mountain ranges have similar form, size and age. Photo by: Simon Fitall.  Lac Blanc, Chamonix, France Prevailing and seasonal winds The prevailing wind in a region of the Earth's surface is a surface wind that blows predominantly from a particular direction. The dominant winds are the trends in direction of wind with the highest speed over a particular point on the Earth's surface. A region's prevailing and dominant winds are the result of global patterns of movement in the Earth's atmosphere. In general, winds are predominantly easterly at low latitudes globally. In the mid-latitudes, westerly winds are dominant, and their strength is largely determined by the polar cyclone. In areas where winds tend to be light, the sea breeze/land breeze cycle is the most important cause of the prevailing wind; in areas which have variable terrain, mountain and valley breezes dominate the wind pattern. Highly elevated surfaces can induce a thermal low, which then augments the environmental wind flow Shape of the land (known as 'relief' or 'topography') Topography is the study of the shape and features of land surfaces. Topography in a narrow sense involves the recording of relief or terrain, the three-dimensional quality of the surface, and the identification of specific landforms. This is also known as geomorphometry. Distance from the equator At the equator, the distance is 68,703 miles (110,57 kilometers). At the Tropic of Cancer and Tropic of Capricorn (23.5 degrees north and south), the distance is 68,94 miles (110,95 kilometers). At each of the poles, the distance is 69,417 miles (111,70 kilometers). Changes appear to be happening faster near the poles than in many other places. In this article we will look at some of these factors in more detail. Distance from the sea (Continentality) The sea affects the climate of a place. Coastal areas are cooler and wetter than inland areas. Clouds form when warm air from inland areas meets cool air from the sea.  The centre of continents are subject to a large range of temperatures.  In the summer, temperatures can be very hot and dry as moisture from the sea evaporates before it reaches the centre of the land mass. Ocean currents Ocean currents can increase or reduce temperatures. The diagram below shows the ocean currents of the world (view original source map). The main ocean current that affects the UK is the Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream is a warm ocean current in the North Atlantic flowing from the Gulf of Mexico, northeast along the U.S coast, and from there to the British Isles. The Gulf of Mexico has higher air temperatures than Britain as it is closer to the equator.  This means that the air coming from the Gulf of Mexico to Britain is also warm.  However, the air is also quite moist as it travels over the Atlantic ocean.  This is one reason why Britain often receives wet weather. The Gulf Stream keeps the west coast of Europe free from ice in the winter and, in the summer, warmer than other places of a similar latitude.   Global Cooling Or Warming: What Are The Key Parameters: Humans Below you can find a list of parameters what made earth climate to change from the moment our Earth had an atmosphere and humanity appeared. We cannot forget the influence of humans on our climate.  Early on in human history our effect on the climate would have been quite small. However, as populations increased and trees were cut down in large numbers, so our influence on the climate increased. Trees take in carbon dioxide and produce oxygen. A reduction in trees will therefore have increased the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Agricultural Revolution: There have been several periods of history called "agricultural revolutions," but the term typically refers to 10,000 years BCE, when humans first learned how to create stationary, farming-based socities. The oldest form of human civilization is that of hunter-gatherer tribes, where every member of the tribe has to contribute to finding food. This changed with the agricultural revolution, which allowed people to grow a surplus of food, whether that be in the form of planting crops or breeding livestock. This eventually led to the industrial revolution, when humans began growing fossil fuels and putting out greenhouse gasses at an unprecedented rate. Some greenhouse gasses are contributed by animals themselves, such as carbon dioxide from their breath or methane from their flatulence. Agricultural development also leads to clearing of land to use for farms, which continuously decreases the amount of trees that can absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide. The Industrial Revolution, starting at the end of the 19th Century, has had a huge effect on climate. The invention of the motor engine and the increased burning of fossil fuels have increased the amount of carbon dioxide (a greenhouse gas - more on that later) in the atmosphere.  The number of trees being cut down has also increased, reducing the amount of carbon dioxide that is taken up by forests. Aerosols The importance of atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide for climate is well known and well publicised. However the tiny particles that are present in the atmosphere, or aerosols, also play crucial roles in weather and climate. Atmospheric aerosols can be either solid or liquid, with diameters of a few nanometers to tens of microns. There are two broad classes of aerosols. Primary aerosols are generated or emitted as solid particles, for example Saharan dust, sea salt or soot. Secondary aerosols are formed in the atmosphere by chemical reactions, for example ammonium sulphate aerosols are formed from the gases sulphur dioxide and ammonia, whilst organic aerosols are formed by chemical reactions acting on chemicals such as isoprene which is emitted by vegetation. Some aerosols have mainly natural origins (dust, sea salt, volcanic ash and volcanic sulphates), whilst others result at least partly from human activities (some soot, ammonium sulphate and ammonium nitrate). Aerosols are often mixed together, and can also be described by their size, eg. PM10 is particles with diameter less than 10 micron. Once in the atmosphere, aerosols can have a variety of impacts. Aerosols reflect and absorb radiation from the sun. Thus a large concentration of most aerosol types will tend to scatter sunlight back to space, preventing the direct beam reaching the Earth's surface. This can lead to a cooling of the earth's surface, a change in the fluxes of latent heat and sensible heat, and a change in the distribution of heating in the atmosphere. Whilst the direct beam is prevented from reaching the surface, more scattered light is available and this affects photosynthesis. High aerosol concentrations can improve plant productivity, until other effects such as temperature or plant physiological issues become dominant. Aerosols are also responsible for clouds, and rainfall. Cloud droplets require an initial "seed" to start the condensation of water - this is provided by aerosols. Changes in aerosol can therefore lead to changes in cloud properties. For example, an increase in aerosol concentration in a cloudy region might mean more seeds for the water to condense on, therefore the available water is spread over a larger number of droplets and each individual droplet is smaller. Smaller droplets reflect more light, and this "indirect effect" of aerosol on cloud can lead to a cooling of the Earth's surface.   Why Doesn’t The Temperature Rise At The Same Rate That CO2 Increases? The amount of CO2 is increasing all the time - we just passed a landmark 414 parts per million concentration of atmospheric CO2, up from around 280ppm before the industrial revolution. That’s a 42.8% increase. A tiny amount of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, like methane and water vapour, keep the Earth’s surface 30°Celsius (54°F) warmer than it would be without them. We have added 47% more CO2 but that doesn't mean the temperature will go up by 47% too. There are several reasons why. Doubling the amount of CO2 does not double the greenhouse effect. The way the climate reacts is also complex, and it is difficult to separate the effects of natural changes from man-made ones over short periods of time. As the amount of man-made CO2 goes up, temperatures do not rise at the same rate. In fact, although estimates vary - climate sensitivity is a hot topic in climate science IPCC report AR4 described the likely range as between 2 and 4.5 degrees C, for double the amount of CO2 compared to pre-industrial levels. So far, the average global temperature has gone up by about 0.8 degrees C (1.4 F). According to an ongoing temperature analysis conducted by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)…the average global temperature on Earth has increased by about 0.8°Celsius (1.4°Fahrenheit) since 1880. Two-thirds of the warming has occurred since 1975, at a rate of roughly 0.15-0.20°C per decade. The speed of the increase is worth noting too. Unfortunately, as this quaote from NASA demonstrates, antropogenic climate change is happening very quickly compared to changes that occured in the past. As the Earth moved out of ice ages over the past million years, the global temperature rose a total of 4 to 7 degrees Celsius over about 5,000 years. In the past century alone, the temperature has climbed 0.7 degrees Celsius, roughly ten times faster than the average rate of ice-age-recovery warming. Small increases in temperature can be hard to measure over short periods, because they can be masked by natural variation. For example, cycles of warming and cooling in the oceans cause temperature changes, but they are hard to separate from small changes in temperature caused by CO2 emissions which occur at the same time. Tiny particle emissions from burning coal or wood are also being researched, because they may be having a cooling effect. Scientists like to measure changes over long periods so that the effects of short natural variations can be distinguished from the effects of man-made CO2. The rate of surface warming has slowed in the past decade. Yet the physical properties of CO2 and other greenhouse gases cannot change. The same energy they were re-radiating back to Earth during previous decades must be evident now, subject only to changes in the amount of energy arriving from the sun - and we know that has changed very little. But if that’s true, where is this heat going? The answer is into the deep oceans. The way heat moves in the deep oceans is not well understood. Improvements in measurement techniques have allowed scientists to more accurately gauge the amount of energy the oceans are absorbing. The Earth’s climate is a complex system, acting in ways we can’t always predict. The energy that man-made CO2 is adding to the climate is not currently showing up as surface warming, because most of the heat is going into the oceans. Currently, the heat is moving downwards from the ocean surface to deeper waters. The surface gets cooler, humidity reduces (water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas), and air temperatures go down. The rate at which surface temperatures go up is not proportional to the rate of CO2 emissions, but to the total amount of atmospheric CO2 added since the start of the industrial revolution. Only by looking at long-term trends - 30 years is the standard period in climate science - can we measure surface temperature increases accurately, and distinguish them from short-term natural variation.    Climate Sensitivity Climate sensitivity is a measurement of how much the Earth will warm for a given increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. More specifically, it is the average change in the Earth's surface temperature in response to changes in radiative forcing, the difference between incoming and outgoing energy on Earth.  Natural temperature variability (black dots) compared to simulations of variability from climate models with higher climate sensitivity (magenta) and lower climate sensitivity (green). Each line represents the results from one model. Climate sensitivity is a key measure in climate science, but its magnitude is not very well known. If climate sensitivity turns out to be on the high side of what scientists estimate, it will be more difficult to achieve the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to below 2 °C (3.6 °F).   CO2 Lags Temperature Science must have asked if the sequence - CO2 increases, temperature increases – has been confirmed by empirical evidence? Some scientists did that and found the empirical evidence showed it was not true. Why isn’t this central to all debate about anthropogenic global warming? The most important assumption behind the hypothesis that human activities are causing global warming is that an increase in global atmospheric CO2 will cause an increase in the average annual global temperature. The assumption became almost the total focus of the IPCC because of the definition of climate change given them by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). As I recall, nobody at the time challenged the assumption that an increase in CO2 caused an increase in global temperature. Rather, the challenges focused on how the definition allowed the IPCC to downplay the much greater volume and importance of water vapor as a greenhouse gas. It allowed the IPCC to effectively overlook it because while humans produce water vapor, the amount is insignificant relative to the total atmospheric volume. In 1999 the first significant long term Antarctic ice core record appeared. Earlier cores were in the record, but as I recall, the one by Petit, Raynaud, and Lorius were presented as the best representation of temperature, CO2, and deuterium over 420,000-year core drilled to 3623 meters. I recall Lorius warning people not to rush to judgment. One of his concerns was the size of the graph depicting such a long record. Lorius reconfirmed this position in a 2007 article. “…our (East Antarctica, Dome C) ice core shows no indication that greenhouse gases have played a key role in such a coupling (with radiative forcing)” The question is how did the interpretation become that, the Antarctic ice core record confirmed that a CO2 increase causes a temperature increase. It could be the nature of the graph as Lorius said. The Lorius warning didn’t prevent people automatically assuming it confirmed the CO2 preceding temperature increase relationship. However, Nova concluded after expanding and more closely examining the data that, the bottom line is that rising temperatures cause carbon levels to rise. Carbon may still influence temperatures, but these ice cores are neutral on that. If both factors caused each other to rise significantly, positive feedback would become exponential. We’d see a runaway greenhouse effect. It hasn’t happened. Some other factor is more important than carbon dioxide, or carbon’s role is minor. How about considering carbon dioxide’s role is non-existent? Fortunately, after the 1999 paper was released, a few people didn’t accept everything at face value and began to test the data. By 2003 Caillon et al., (including Jouzel) produced “Timing of Atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic Temperature Changes Across Termination III.” Here the concern was more with the “gas age-ice age” difference. This speaks to the problem that it takes decades for the gas in the bubble to become enclosed or trapped. In a 2006 paper, the authors state; gas is trapped in polar ice at depths of ~50–120 m and is therefore significantly younger than the ice in which it is embedded. The age difference is not well constrained for slowly accumulating ice on the East Antarctic Plateau, introducing a significant uncertainty into chronologies of the oldest deep ice cores. In the case of slowly accumulating East Antarctic ice cores, this difference is very large, up to 7 kyr during glacial periods, and the timing of climate changes recorded in the two phases will not be accurate unless the gas age–ice age difference can be well constrained. This means the only thing we can conclude agrees with Nova that temperature increases before CO2. It is important to note that more precise correlation between temperature and CO2 is made difficult by the application of a 70-year smoothing average to the raw data. The impact of this smoothing on the elimination of data that would help resolve the relationship and lag time. It is seen in the 2000-year comparison of different measures of atmospheric CO2. It is reasonable to say that virtually all potential diagnoses are eliminated by the removal of annual variation, but especially the sequence of events. Notice that the overall atmospheric average of CO2 is different, approximately 260 ppm to 300 ppm. This is a difference that the IPCC claim took us from about 50% CO2 control of global temperature in 1950 to 95% + today. Amazingly, despite many decades of climate science, there has never been a study focused on how long it takes to feel the warming from a particular emission of carbon dioxide, taking carbon-climate uncertainties into consideration.  In a recent letter, Ricke and Caldeira (2014 Environ. Res. Lett. 9 124002) estimated that the timing between an emission and the maximum temperature response is a decade on average. In their analysis, they took into account uncertainties about the carbon cycle, the rate of ocean heat uptake and the climate sensitivity but did not consider one important uncertainty: the size of the emission. Using simulations with an Earth System Model we show that the time lag between a carbon dioxide (CO2) emission pulse and the maximum warming increases for larger pulses. Our results suggest that as CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere, the full warming effect of an emission may not be felt for several decades, if not centuries. In a 'plain language' summary by Nic Lewis on Judith Curry’s website of a paper released by a group from the UK Met Office under lead author Andrews we learn, The simulations show that the models’ effective climate sensitivity is substantially lower when driven by an observationally-based estimate of the evolution of SST (sea surface temperature) and sea-ice over the historical period than when responding to long-term CO2 forcing. This finding underlies the authors’ conclusion that climate sensitivity estimates based on observed historical warming are too low. Climate sensitivity is the effect on global temperature of a change in forcing, in this case, the forcing is an increase in CO2. This accepts the assumption that a CO2 increase causes a temperature increase. The Andrews et al., although done using a model, shows that when the authors used empirical data the CO2 increase was “substantially lower.” Don’t forget, this is for just two variables, sea-ice and Sea Surface Temperatures (SST). Is it possible that with many more empirical values the climate sensitivity would go to zero? That is the empirical evidence based on studies and decrease in sensitivity over the last few years The issue of CO2 climate sensitivity is central to the entire history of scientific examination. Academics, including those in the natural sciences, love to use argumentum ad verecundiam (appeal to authority) to bolster their studies. I am not saying there is no greenhouse effect. I am saying that the empirical evidence shows that an increase in CO2 does not cause an increase in temperature. Further, it appears that the entire greenhouse effect is reasonably explained by water vapor. Besides variation in water vapor is just one variable in a complex array of variables that cause climate change, which can cause global warming or global cooling.      CO2 Matters Because It Doesn’t: Politics Thatcher Margaret Thatcher biography: The visionary scientist who saw the climate change challenge ahead  The climate deniers' greatest success during the early 2000s was the apparent conversion of Margaret Thatcher - when she abandoned the climate cause she so forcefully and eloquently championed as the British prime minister. Thatcher published her autobiography Statecraft in 2002, shortly before she stepped out of the limelight due to her failing health. The autobiography included a long passage in which she renounced her former beliefs and even revised the meaning of her original 1990 address. In her 1990 speech, Thatcher praised the creation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), called for precautionary action, and argued that economic growth must benefit “future as well as present generations everywhere.” Economic Growth But, her autobiography states: “By the end of my time as Prime Minister I was also becoming seriously concerned about the anti-capitalist arguments which the campaigners against global warming were deploying. “So in a speech to scientists in 1990 I observed: whatever international action we agree upon to deal with environmental problems, we must enable all our economies to grow and develop because without growth you cannot generate the wealth required to pay for the protection of the environment.” The Iron Lady's complete and dramatic U-turn meant that her free market admirers could reclaim her legacy and erase from history her arguments that economic growth must be environmentally sustainable while the public seemed to have mostly forgotten that one of the earliest champions of legally binding international agreements was, in fact, a staunch Conservative and economic Liberal. Environmental Enemy The cause of this volte-face was very evidently the belief that environmentalism was simply the old enemy of Socialism in a new guise, as presented by free market economists Friedrich von Hayek and Antony Fisher, and the think tanks they inspired. “The doomsters’ favourite subject today is climate change,” she wrote. “Clearly no plan to alter climate could be considered on anything but a global scale, it provides a marvellous excuse for worldwide, supra-national socialism.” She attacked former US vice president Al Gore directly and argued that “Kyoto was an anti-growth, anti-capitalist, anti-American project which no American leader alert to his country’s national interests could have supported.” Free Market Inspiration Thatcher, in her notes, expressed gratitude for the fact that “the issues have been clearly analysed and debated by scholars in the United States.” She informed her readers that her revised position on climate change was based on reading Julian Morris’s Climate Change: Challenging the Conventional Wisdom published by her old friends at the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA), Richard Lindzen’s Global Warming: The Origin and Nature of the Alleged Scientific Consensus from the Koch- and Exxon-funded free market Cato Institute and Fred Singer’s Climate Policy: From Rio to Kyoto: A Political Issue for 2000 and Beyond put out by the right wing Centre for the New Europe. All three men were members of free market think tanks and were funding recipients from the fossil fuel industry. And so the former prime minister, in turning to scepticism, relied almost entirely on publications put out by free market lobby groups, rather than relying on the scientific literature. Successfully neutralised Her new denial of the science rested on a pamphlet from the Reason Foundation published in December 1997 and titled A Plain English Guide to Climate Science. The guide claimed that: “It is widely acknowledged that the potential temperature changes predicted by global warming theory do not pose a direct threat to human life. Human beings, and a myriad of other organisms, exist quite comfortably in areas with temperature ranges more extreme than those predicted by global warming models.” The Foundation received $70,000 the following year from ExxonMobil to “assess public policy alternatives on issues with direct bearing on the company's business operations and interests.” And so, the political consensus – that the science of climate change had alerted the world to the need for urgent and dramatic improvements to the clean production of energy – had been broken, and one of the earliest and keenest advocates had been successfully neutralised by the sceptics. Thatcher’s legacy would simply be the rapid and controversial implementation of the free market in Britain, which would reverberate through the economies of the world and have serious ecological implications. Reagan, IPCC Photo by: The Irish Times 1984 The United States Environmental Protection Agency and State Department wanted an international convention to agree restrictions on greenhouse gases, and the conservative Reagan Administration was concerned about unrestrained influence from independent scientists or from United Nations bodies including UNEP and the WMO. The U.S. government was the main force in forming the IPCC as an autonomous intergovernmental body in which scientists took part both as experts on the science and as official representatives of their governments, to produce reports which had the firm backing of all the leading scientists worldwide researching the topic, and which then had to gain consensus agreement from every one of the participating governments. In this way, it was formed as a hybrid between a scientific body and an intergovernmental political organisation   Global Cooling Or Warming. CO2 Matters Because It Doesn’t: Conclusion The above written is a collection of events past, present which all make up for our climate, our present climate. Natural and man-made parameters are mentioned and sure there are many more. They all interact, amplify and weaken each other in cycles, almost cycles and absolute randomness. There are past events which show that climate changes can happen rapidly and present in combination what humanity throws to nature it ‘could’ result in our present climate. There have been high CO2 levels in the past with lower temperatures and the other way round. So why the focus on CO2. It is easy to describe and understandable for ‘many’. Besides it is easy the measure. To understand our climate and all the processes which are involved is already too difficult to understand for scientists let alone for ‘you and me’. Photo By: Scott Rodgerson Of course there will be a moment in the future that our fossils fuels are coming to an end or getting too expensive because of its scarcity. So somewhere in time there had to be a decision made to let humanity be convinced to start with reorganizing our society and start looking for alternatives. So what an easy and for all understandable phenomenon 'CO2 rise' is to start this shift, this transition. So, yes I am still increasingly surprised that until the 1970s we considered the climate as the result of the action of the great forces of nature (the influence of the sun, the thermostat action of the water, as vapor, liquid and ice, the effects of the heat flows in the mantle and the effect on volcanism, on land and under water, and perhaps even the effect of greenhouses on that thin shell atmosphere). Then suddenly AGW came into view and those large forces of nature, which of course continue to work, were left out of consideration. Why did that happen? I cannot give scientific but political and activist reasons. Who helps me out of the dream? Reason for me to get an earlier analysis from the old box. I thought it was still current. The proposition that the climate changes as a result of human activities due to the emission of CO2 and other greenhouse gases that enhance the natural greenhouse effect seems to have become dogma over time. And all of that would have all kinds of disastrous consequences. Even more important is that by 'only pointing to CO2' which humanity pumps into the atmosphere the idea got procliamed that humanity was also in charge to limit greenhouse gasses and therefore could change the climate in our benefit. Never gets mentioned the feedback processes and the many other events which makes that certain effects wil take ten or hundreds of years to fade out. Also politicians make twist and turns depending on what they expect from economical growth, the fossil fuel industry and the wish to deal with independent scientists. The other way around the influence from large industries and the fossil fuel industry via lobbyists on politicians and scientists. We will never know the exact reason and motivation why the message about climate change is brought as it is. One thing is for sure that the message is incomplete and driven by economic, political interests and to give you and me the idea in a 'makeable world'. About one thing we can all agree; humanity has to pollute less, produce 'cleaner', make the income gap much smaller, spend less on war(mongering) and get the influence from  businesses on political decision making less. Before you go! Recommended:  Climate Change: The Ultimate Culprit For The Insect Die-Off Did you find this an interesting article or do you have a question or remark? Leave a comment below. 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Global Cooling Or Warming: CO2 Matters Because It Doesn’t. Well this a very confusing, conflicting expression which exactly 'covers the load'. Sure there must be a moment when you were reading or watching a documentry about climate change and then especially the influence of humans on it that you thought; 'But there are so many natural contributers to climate change'! Global Cooling Or Warming: In the media global warming is mainly focused on the amount of CO2 humanity has added since the industrial revolution, thus causing the Earth warming up. Is there a reason to 'only' focus on CO2 because it is the 'reason' our Earth is warming up or are there other interests or reasons? Well I, we believe the climate is changing. Nature does the climate changing so humanity. If you are with 7.8 billion people the influnece of a group this big is measurable. The biggest question is; what is the influence from humanity in compare with natural cycles?  I am increasingly surprised that until the 1970s we considered the climate as the result of the action of the great forces of nature (the influence of the sun, the thermostat action of the water, as vapor, liquid and ice, the effects of the heat flows in the mantle and the effect on volcanism, on land and under water, and perhaps even the effect of greenhouses on that thin shell atmosphere). Then suddenly AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming) came into view and those large forces of nature, which of course continue to work, were left out of consideration. Why did that happen? Photo by Tim Mossholder Index Global Coorling Or Warming: Jump quickly to subject by clicking on: Some Thoughts Is It Just About The Balance Sudden change of CO2 levels Natural Why The Eemian Is So Bad For The Theory Of Global Warming A Brief History Of CO2 Primary Forcing Mechanisms Key Parameters For Climate Change: Nature Key Parameters For Climate Change: Humans Why Doesn’t The Temperature Rise At The Same Rate That CO2 Increases? Climate Sensitivity CO2 Lags Temperature CO2 Matters Because It Doesn’t: Politics Global Cooling Or Warming. CO2 Matters Because It Doesn’t: Conclusion   Global Cooling Or Warming: Some Thoughts The article below is just an observation from a 'person' reading newspapers, watching the news, reading some scientific magazines and watching documentries relating to climate change. The first impression is that there are many ideas about the cause and effect of certain processes. For sure there is no consensus about what exactly makes our climate what it is today but the media does make you often think there is one reason and that's the rise of CO2!  Photo by: Callum Shaw There are many questions coming up if it is about Earth's climate: how reliable are the outcomes of research from ice cores? What does it tell about the temperature and amount of CO2 in other parts of the world? Are we too focused on changes in a humans lifetime, or from the moment we started to measure temperatures, CO2 and other parameters which all makes our climate. What is the influence of TV and the internet seeing many kinds of weather/climate related events which maybe amplify our opinion its getting ‘worse than ever before’? Are there political and economical reasons mainly to focus on CO2? Is it done to make the issue of climate change small and understandable for civilians like me or does it fit an ‘other agenda’? CO2 Matters Because It Doesn’t There is a lot of evidence humanity is producing a lot of CO2 which 'partly' ends up in our atmosphere. Not a lot off attention is paid to the fact that a lot of CO2 is sucked up less by the still available amount of 'plants' and organisms in oceans. Would it not be wise to stop the pollution of the oceans so it can suck up 'again' more CO2. The point is, we focus 'too much' on producing CO2 instead of also to focus on natural processes and what 'could store CO2 more'. Stopping polution ending up in oceans seams hardly an issue while it could make a hudge difference. Imagen that the amount of phytoplankton was still intact, the oceans could suck up much more CO2. So instead of having 414 ppm nowadays we 'could have' around 360 ppm. Recommended:  Breaking: Did You Know, All You Read About CO2 Rise Is Half The Truth   CO2 Matters: Is It Just About Disturbing The Balance? Human CO2 is a tiny percentage of all natural CO2 emissions. The oceans contain 37,400 billion tons (GT) of suspended carbon, land biomass has 2.000-3.000 GT. The atmosphere contains 720 billion tons of CO2 and humans contribute only 6 GT additional load on this balance. The oceans, land and atmosphere exchange CO2 continuously so the additional load by humans is incredibly small. A small shift in the balance between oceans and air would cause CO2 much more severe rise than anything we could produce.   Global Cooling Or Warming: Can CO2 Levels 'Suddenly' Change By Natural Processes The answer is yes. A good example is the Younger Dryas episode. The Younger Dryas episode demonstrates that major climate change (almost as big as the difference between an ice age and modern climate and covering a large region, such as the North Atlantic basin), can occur in a few decades . Very rapid but less persistent changes to conditions outside the range experienced in the last few hundred years have also taken place since the last retreat of the ice. Such changes may result entirely from the internal mechanisms of the atmosphere and oceans, or they may be caused by events such as very large explosive volcanic eruptions. And the other way around, the three abrupt pulses of CO2 during last deglaciation: A new multi-institutional study including Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, shows that the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide that contributed to the end of the last ice age more than 10,000 years ago did not occur gradually, but was characterized by three 'pulses' in which CO2 rose abruptly . Scientists are not sure what caused these abrupt increases, during which levels of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, rose about 10-15 parts per million (ppm) – or about five percent per episode – over a period of one to two centuries . It likely was a combination of factors, they say, including: ocean circulation, changing wind patterns, and terrestrial processes . Scripps geoscientist Jeff Severinghaus said the three episodes, which took place 16,100 years ago, 14,700 years ago, and 11,700 years ago are strongly linked to abrupt climate change events that took place in the Northern Hemisphere. The rate of change during these events is still significantly less than present-day changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The Keeling Curve record of atmospheric carbon dioxide, launched by the late Scripps geochemist Charles David Keeling, recorded levels of 315 ppm when it began in 1958. In 2014, monthly average concentrations reached 401 ppm, an increase of more than 85 parts per million in less than 60 years. Now in 2020 it is 416 ppm. The overall rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide during the last deglaciation was thought to have been triggered by the release of CO2 from the deep ocean, especially the Southern Ocean. But the century-scale events must involve a different mechanism that can act faster, said Severinghaus. One possibility is a major increase in the winds that blow around Antarctica , which are known to bring up CO2 from mid-depths and cause it to outgas into the atmosphere. Recommended:  Climate Change On Earth Caused By Jupiter And Venus Eemian Rapid Climate Change Temperatures similar to those of the most recent 10,000 years have been reached during previous interglacials, which have occurred approximately each 100,000 years over the last 700,000 years in response to features of earth’s orbit. Each of these interglacials was slightly different from the others, at least in part because the orbital parameters do not repeat exactly. The penultimate interglacial, about 125,000 years ago, is known by several names including the Eemian, Sangamonian, and marine isotope stage 5e (with the different terminologies originating in different disciplines or geographic regions and being broadly but not identically equivalent).   Why The Eemian Is So Bad For The Theory Of Global Warming This part is about the high temperatures of the Eemian and the high 65N insolation (The 65th parallel north is a circle of latitude that is 65 degrees north of the Earth's equatorial plane. It crosses the Atlantic Ocean, Europe, Asia and North America). The Eemian was 5C warmer than the Earth currently is with a max CO2 level of 285 ppm and it was really 270-280 for most of the time. But it had a temperature that the theory of global warming associates with almost 2 full doublings of CO2. So imagen the CO2 level for that temperature is 1150 ppm. The Holocene had basically identical pre-industrial CO2 levels, but a temperature that was 5C lower than the Eemian. Let’s try to explain how the Earth was much, much warmer with CO2 levels that are lower than they are today. The reasonable and simple explanation is that 14% higher solar insolation (solar power, solar radiation) is the cause. The problem is that the theory of global warming has discounted 65N insolation as being capable of causing the glacial/interglacial cycle. It is very important to understand the significance of the very warm Eemian. Last Interglacial (relating to a period of milder climate between two glacial periods) orbital focing   {youtube}                             The Milankovitch Cycles can Produce Sudden Climate Transitions such as Modern Climate Change Holocene Rapid Climate Change The Holocene had basically identical pre-industrial CO2 levels, but a temperature that was 5C lower than the Eemian. Let’s try to explain how the Earth was much, much warmer with CO2 levels that are lower than they are today. The relevance of abrupt climate change of the ice age to the modern warm climate or future warmer climates is unclear. However, although glacial and deglacial rapid shifts in temperature were often larger than those of the Holocene (the last roughly 10,000 years), Holocene events were also important with respect to societally relevant climate change. For example, there were large rapid shifts in precipitation (droughts and floods) and in the size and frequency of hurricanes, typhoons, and El Niño/La Niña events. If they recurred, these kinds of changes would have large effects on society. It is not surprising that many past examples of societal collapse involved rapid climate change to some degree. Holocene Droughts The existing temperature records, as described above, make it clear that natural variability alone can generate regional to hemispheric temperature anomalies that are sufficient to affect many aspects of human activity. However, the record of hydrologic change over the last 2,000 years suggests even larger effects: there is ample evidence that decadal, even century-scale, drought can occur with little or no warning. The 4.2-kiloyear BP ( Before Present  means before 1950. The most commonly used convention in radiocarbon dating. 'Present' referring to the year 1950 AD. 1950 Is the date that the calibration curves were established.) aridification (the gradual change of a region from a wetter to a drier climate The onset of sudden aridification in Mesopotamia near 4100 calendar yr BP coincided with a widespread cooling in the North Atlantic) event was one of the most severe climatic events of the Holocene epoch. It defines the beginning of the current Meghalayan age in the Holocene epoch. Starting in about 2200 BC, it probably lasted the entire 22nd century BC. It has been hypothesised to have caused the collapse of the Old Kingdom in Egypt as well as the Akkadian Empire in Mesopotamia, and the Liangzhu culture in   the lower Yangtze River area. The drought may also have initiated the collapse of the Indus Valley Civilisation, with some of its population moving southeastward to follow the movement of their desired habitat, as well as the migration of Indo-European-speaking people into India. Holocene Floods Just as the twentieth century instrumental record is too short to understand the full range of drought, it is too short to understand how the frequency of large floods has changed. Data on past hydrological conditions from the upper Mississippi River and from sediments in the Gulf of Mexico record large, abrupt shifts in flood regimes in the Holocene, which may have been linked to major jumps in the location of the lower Mississippi (delta-lobe switching). In the western United States, there is growing evidence that flood regimes distinctly different from today, and also episodic in time, were the norm rather than the exception. The frequency of large floods in the Lower Colorado River Basin, for example, appears to have varied widely over the last 5,000 years, with increased frequency from about 5,000-4,000 years ago, then lower frequency until about 2,000 years ago, and some abrupt shifts up, down, and back up thereafter. Those flood-frequency fluctuations and substantial fluctuations elsewhere around the world appear to be linked to climate shifts but in poorly understood ways. Clearly, a predictive understanding of megadroughts and large floods must await further research.   Global Cooling Or Warming: A Brief History Of The Earth's CO2 Climate change has been described as one of the biggest problems faced by humankind. This gas has played a crucial role in shaping the Earth's climate. Carbon dioxide (CO2) has been present in the atmosphere since the Earth condensed from a ball of hot gases following its formation from the explosion of a huge star about five billion years ago. At that time the atmosphere was mainly composed of nitrogen, CO2 and water vapour, which seeped through cracks in the solid surface. A very similar composition emerges from volcanic eruptions today. Photo by: Iswanto Arif As the planet cooled further some of the water vapour condensed out to form oceans and they dissolved a portion of the CO2 but it was still present in the atmosphere in large amounts. The first life forms to evolve on Earth were microbes which could survive in this primordial atmosphere but about 2.5 billion years ago, plants developed the ability to photosynthesise, creating glucose and oxygen from CO2 and water in the presence of light from the Sun. This had a transformative impact on the atmosphere: as life developed, CO2 was consumed so that by around 20 million years ago its concentration was down to below 300 molecules in every one million molecules of air (or 300 parts per million - ppm). Life on Earth has evolved under these conditions - note that humans did not appear until about 200,000 years. Concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere were as high as 4,000 parts per million (ppm, on a molar basis) during the Cambrian period about 500 million years ago to as low as 180 ppm during the Quaternary glaciation of the last two million years. Reconstructed temperature records for the last 420 million years indicate that atmospheric CO2 concentrations peaked at ~2000 ppm during te Devonian (∼400 Myrs ago (million years)) period, and again in the Triassic (220–200 Myrs ago) period. Fossilized crinoids, marine invertebrates that lived during the Permian Period, found in western Australia. Scientists say the Great Dying, which wiped out 96 percent of all life in the oceans, was caused by global warming, which deprived the oceans of oxygen. Global annual mean CO2 concentration has increased by more than 45% since the start of the Industrial Revolution, from 280 ppm during the 10,000 years up to the mid-18th century to 415 ppm as of May 2019. The present concentration is the highest for 14 million years. The increase has been attributed to human activity and natural processes. This increase of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere has produced the current episode of global warming. Between 30% and 40% of the CO2 released by humans into the atmosphere dissolves into the oceans, wherein it forms carbonic acid and effects changes in the oceanic pH balance. CO2 plays an important role in climate because it is one of the atmospheric 'greenhouse' gases (GHGs) which keep the Earth's surface about 33 degrees warmer than the -18C temperature it would be at were they not present. Photo by: University of Cambridge. Liverworts are small green plants that don’t have roots, stems, leaves or flowers. They belong to a group of plants called Bryophytes, which also includes mosses and hornworts. Bryophytes diverged from other plant lineages early in the evolution of plants and are thought to be similar to some of the earliest diverging land plant lineages. Liverworts are found all over the world and are often seen growing as a weed in the cracks of paving or soil of potted plants. Marchantia polymorpha, which is also known as the common liverwort or umbrella liverwort, was used in this research.  They do this by being fairly transparent to the Sun's rays, allowing them through to warm the surface, but then absorbing the radiant heat that the surface emits, so trapping it and enhancing the warming. In the present climate the most effective GHGs are water vapour, which is responsible for about two-thirds of the total warming, and CO2 which accounts for about one quarter. Other gases, including methane, make up the remainder. The atmospheric concentration of water vapour is less than 1% and, with CO2 making up only a few molecules in every ten thousand of air, it may be surprising that they can have such a significant impact on the surface temperature. They are able to do this, however, because the structure of their molecules makes them especially effective at absorbing heat radiation while the major atmospheric gases, nitrogen and oxygen, are essentially transparent to it. The greenhouse effect means that as the atmospheric loading of GHGs increases the surface temperature of the Earth warms. Most significantly, the concentration of CO2 has been rising exponentially (at a rate of about 0.17% per year) since the industrial revolution, due mainly to the combustion of fossil fuels but also to large-scale tropical deforestation which depletes the climate system's capacity for photosynthesis. In 2015, it passed 400ppm, more than 40% higher than its pre-industrial value of 280ppm and a level that has not existed on Earth for several million years. While the basic science of how GHGs warm the Earth is very well understood, there are complications. The climate system responds in various ways which both enhance and ameliorate the effects of these gases. For example, a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapour (before it condenses out in clouds or rain) and because water vapour is a GHG, this increases the temperature rise. Another example: as the oceans warm they are less able to hold CO2 so release it, again with the result the initial warming is enhanced. Photo by: Sebastian Pena Lambarri The global temperature record over the past century does not show the same smooth increase presented by CO2 measurements because the climate is influenced by other factors than GHGs, arising from both natural and human sources. Some particles released into the atmosphere by industrial activities reflect sunshine back to space, tending to cool the planet. Similarly, large volcanic eruptions can eject small particles into the higher atmosphere, where they remain for up to about two years reducing the sunlight reaching the surface, and temporary dips in global temperature have indeed been measured following major volcanic events. Changes in the energy emitted by the Sun also affect surface temperature, though measurements of the solar output show this effect to be small on human timescales. Another important consideration in interpreting global temperatures is that the climate is inherently complex. Energy moves between the atmosphere and oceans in natural fluctuations - an example being El Niño events. This means that we cannot expect an immediate direct relationship between any influencing factor and surface temperature. All these factors complicate the picture. Notably, during the ice ages which have occurred roughly every 100,000 years over at least the past half million, drops in global temperature of perhaps 5C have been accompanied by reductions in CO2 concentration to less than 200ppm. The ice ages, and associated warmer interglacial periods, are brought about by changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun which take place on these long timescales. The cooling in response to a decline in solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface results in a greater uptake of CO2 by the oceans and so further cooling due to a weakened greenhouse effect. This is an entirely natural phenomenon and it is worth noting that such amplification of temperature fluctuations will occur in response to any initiating factor regardless of its source and including human-produced greenhouse gases. The effects of increasing CO2 are not limited to an increase in air temperature. As the oceans warm they are expanding so producing a rise in sea level, this being exacerbated by the melting of some of the ice present on land near the poles and in glaciers. The warmer atmosphere holds more water vapour resulting in increased occurrences of heavy rainfall and flooding while changes in weather patterns are intensifying droughts in other regions.   Global Cooling Or Warming: Primary Forcing Mechanism The Natural Climate Pulse of Earth Introduction The earth's climate pulse cycles are governed by cycles of the Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM). These cycles range from daily (ocean tides) and more importantly every 6 months, 4 years, 9 years, 18 years, 72 years, 230 years, 1200 years and 130 thousand years.  Earth is currently coming off a 230 year global warming cycle and dipping into a 120 year global cooling cycle .  They come approximately every 230 years and we have have had 5 during the past 1000 years.  The last one ended in the year 1800 and was followed by dramatic cooling and a year of no summer in 1816. Photo by: Anton Foltin. rare snowfall in Arizona During early stages of each global cooling cycle, historically strong volcanic activity usually occurs, resulting in unusually cold summer weather, worldwide crop failures, famine and disease. This scenario is not merely a coincidence, it happened in global cooling cycles with the volcano Eldgja in 934 AD, Ringitoto in 1350, Huaynaputina in 1600, Tambora in 1815, and will likely occur again during the upcoming dramatic global cooling cycle that will begin soon. Ever since planet Earth was created about 4.5 billion years ago, it has been exposed to natural processes and forcing mechanisms within the solar system and earth. During the course of millions of years, the interaction of these processes has implemented a natural climate and planetary rhythm.  These rhythms include but are not limited to:  day and night, the four annual seasons and weather events during the particular season, short-term climate fluctuations and oscillations within the seasons, and long-term climate change cycles such as glacial periods which occur approximately every 120 thousand years. The gravitational cycles of the moon and sun cause the seasonal tilts of the earth's axis and the 4 seasons.  The strong gravitational pull of the moon causes a bulge to form in the center of the 5 oceans.  As the earth makes a complete rotation on its axis daily, the moon rises and falls in the sky.  This causes dramatic changes to the gravitational pull, with increases and decreases occurring during the daily cycle.  This causes a gravitational pulse which in turn causes an interactive plunging action on the ocean's bulge, thus producing the twice daily ocean tides. The gravitational tides are also noticed in the earth's atmosphere, and in lower depths of the ocean. Photo by: Dan Grinwis ​The daily rotation of the earth provides the twice daily tides, and the 27.5 day elliptical path of the moon around the earth provides a monthly and bi-monthly gravitational pulse.  The cycles then extend out in time as the elliptical path of the earth around the sun, and the moon around the earth cyclical change from one month to the next, every 6 months, 4 years, 9 years, 18 years and beyond.  The earths 130 thousand year elliptical path is well documented in science and is proven to be the cause for the earth's inter-glacial (warm) as the earth swings in closer to the sun, and glacial periods (cold)  that occur every 130 thousand years as the earth swings further away from the sun.  The current warm inter-glacial period peaked about 7 thousand years ago, and the peak of the next glacial period will be 70 to 110 thousand years from now. ​The Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate change is the combination of the elliptical paths of the moon and earth, changes in solar radiation and changes in the gravitational pulses and electromagnetic pulses. The PFM cycles control the Earth's 'atural Climate Pulse', and it is this Natural Pulse that controls weather and climate cycles here on earth.   ​The earth's climate is very complex and very cyclical due to the PFM (Primary Forcing Mechanism) Natural Climate Pulse interacting with the oceans, atmosphere and inner/outer cores of earth. The high and low tides of the oceans alternate approximately every 6 hours, and ocean tides and some currents change with the PFM cycles.   Above the surface of the Earth is the atmosphere which is made up of nitrogen, oxygen, water vapor and other gases which move fluidly around the planet.  The flow of these atmospheric gases are caused by the rotation of the earth, heating of the atmosphere and ground by the sun, proximity of mountain ranges and water bodies such as oceans, and forcing mechanisms such as gravitational tides caused by the PFM cycles    ​Earth's temperature changes seasonally due to the seasonal tilt of the earth, with longer term cycles due to the PFM Natural Pulse cycles every 10-years, 230 years and 130 thousand years. Carbon dioxide concentrations are a naturally occurring cycle connected to the short-term global warming cycles that occur approximately every 230 years, and the longer term 130 thousand year glacial and inter-glacial cycles. The eBook written by Mr. Dilley of GWO (avalable on the Natural Pulse Page) illustrates that earth's current temperatueres and carbon dioxide levels are perfectly normal for global warming cycle that was occurring up to the year 2012 (now beginning to slip into global cooling for the next 150 years). ​GWO’s nineteen (19) years of ongoing research uses a combination of Meteorology, Oceanography, Climatology, Geology and Astronomy along with extensive historical weather and climate data to develop techniques for climate prediction. The most significant discovery was that of the Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) which is highly correlated to short-term climate cycles. The combination resulted in the development of prediction models formulated from a subset of  the scientifically proven "Milankovitch" cycles of the  earth, moon and sun.     Global Cooling Or Warming: What Are The Key Parameters: Natural Below you can find a list of parameters what made earth climate to change from the moment our Earth had a atmosphere but before the apperance of humanity: Milanković-Parameters: Orbital eccentricity Axial tilt (obliquity) Axial precession Clouds In meteorology, a cloud is an aerosol consisting of a visible mass of minute liquid droplets, frozen crystals, or other particles suspended in the atmosphere of a planetary body or similar space. Water or various other chemicals may compose the droplets and crystals. On Earth, clouds are formed as a result of saturation of the air when it is cooled to its dew point, or when it gains sufficient moisture (usually in the form of water vapor) from an adjacent source to raise the dew point to the ambient temperature. They are seen in the Earth's homosphere (which includes the troposphere, stratosphere, and mesosphere). Nephology is the science of clouds, which is undertaken in the cloud physics branch of meteorology. Snow & Ice: The Albedo Effect Ice–albedo feedback is a positive feedback climate process where a change in the area of ice caps, glaciers, and sea ice alters the albedo and surface temperature of a planet. Ice is very reflective, therefore some of the solar energy is reflected back to space. Ice–albedo feedback plays an important role in global climate change. For instance at higher latitudes, we see warmer temperatures melt the ice sheets. However, if warm temperatures decrease the ice cover and the area is replaced by water or land the albedo would decrease. This increases the amount of solar energy absorbed, leading to more warming. The effect has mostly been discussed in terms of the recent trend of declining Arctic sea ice. The change in albedo acts to reinforce the initial alteration in ice area leading to more warming. Warming tends to decrease ice cover and hence decrease the albedo, increasing the amount of solar energy absorbed and leading to more warming. By: The Conversation In the geologically recent past, the ice-albedo positive feedback has played a major role in the advances and retreats of the Pleistocene (~2.6 Ma to ~10 Ma (mega-annum)) ice sheets. Inversely, cooler temperatures increase ice, which increases albedo, leading to more cooling. Vulcanoes Large-scale volcanic activity may last only a few days, but the massive outpouring of gases and ash can influence climate patterns for years. Sulfuric gases convert to sulfate aerosols, sub-micron droplets containing about 75 percent sulfuric acid. Following eruptions, these aerosol particles can linger as long as three to four years in the stratosphere. Major eruptions alter the Earth's radiative balance because volcanic aerosol clouds absorb terrestrial radiation, and scatter a significant amount of the incoming solar radiation, an effect known as "radiative forcing" that can last from two to three years following a volcanic eruption. "Volcanic eruptions cause short-term climate changes and contribute to natural climate variability," says Georgiy Stenchikov, a research professor with the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers University. "Exploring effects of volcanic eruption allows us to better understand important physical mechanisms in the climate system that are initiated by volcanic forcing." Recommended:  Taal Volcano: Hazardous Eruption Feared. What Is The Future? Nature: Plants & Animals Air Pressure: Arctic oscillation (AO) Is a weather phenomenon at the Arctic poles north of 20 degrees latitude. It is an important mode of climate variability for the Northern Hemisphere. Antarctic oscillation (AAO) The southern hemisphere analogue is called the Antarctic oscillation or Southern Annular Mode (SAM). The index varies over time with no particular periodicity, and is characterized by non-seasonal sea-level pressure anomalies of one sign in the Arctic, balanced by anomalies of opposite sign centered at about 37–45N North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) Is a weather phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level (SLP) between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. Through fluctuations in the strength of the Icelandic low and the Azores high, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and location of storm tracks across the North Atlantic.It is part of the Arctic oscillation, and varies over time with no particular periodicity Pacific-North American pattern (PNA) Is a climatological term for a large-scale weather pattern with two modes, denoted positive and negative, and which relates the atmospheric circulation pattern over the North Pacific Ocean with the one over the North American continent. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregularly periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña. The Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric component, coupled with the sea temperature change: El Niño is accompanied by high air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific and La Niña with low air surface pressure there. The two periods last several months each and typically occur every few years with varying intensity per period. Oceans & Sea surface temperature: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Trends of the SST Elevation  (altitude) Latitude In geography, latitude is a geographic coordinate that specifies the north–south position of a point on the Earth's surface. Latitude is an angle which ranges from 0° at the Equator to 90° (North or South) at the poles. Lines of constant latitude, or parallels, run east–west as circles parallel to the equator Proximity of large bodies of water Proximity to Water bodies: Large bodies of water such as oceans, seas, and large lakes affect the climate of an area. Water heats and cools more slowly than land. Therefore, in the summer, the coastal regions will stay cooler and in winter warmer. A more moderate climate with a smaller temperature range is created. Ocean currents An ocean current is a continuous, directed movement of sea water generated by a number of forces acting upon the water, including wind, the Coriolis effect, breaking waves, cabbeling (two separate water parcels mix to form a third which sinks below both parentsand temperature and salinity differences. Depth contours, shoreline configurations, and interactions with other currents influence a current's direction and strength. Ocean currents are primarily horizontal water movements. Proximity of mountain ranges (topography) A mountain's height above sea level is called its elevation with its highest point called a summit or peak. A mountain range is a group or chain of mountains located close together. Since neighboring mountains often share the same geological origins, mountain ranges have similar form, size and age. Photo by: Simon Fitall.  Lac Blanc, Chamonix, France Prevailing and seasonal winds The prevailing wind in a region of the Earth's surface is a surface wind that blows predominantly from a particular direction. The dominant winds are the trends in direction of wind with the highest speed over a particular point on the Earth's surface. A region's prevailing and dominant winds are the result of global patterns of movement in the Earth's atmosphere. In general, winds are predominantly easterly at low latitudes globally. In the mid-latitudes, westerly winds are dominant, and their strength is largely determined by the polar cyclone. In areas where winds tend to be light, the sea breeze/land breeze cycle is the most important cause of the prevailing wind; in areas which have variable terrain, mountain and valley breezes dominate the wind pattern. Highly elevated surfaces can induce a thermal low, which then augments the environmental wind flow Shape of the land (known as 'relief' or 'topography') Topography is the study of the shape and features of land surfaces. Topography in a narrow sense involves the recording of relief or terrain, the three-dimensional quality of the surface, and the identification of specific landforms. This is also known as geomorphometry. Distance from the equator At the equator, the distance is 68,703 miles (110,57 kilometers). At the Tropic of Cancer and Tropic of Capricorn (23.5 degrees north and south), the distance is 68,94 miles (110,95 kilometers). At each of the poles, the distance is 69,417 miles (111,70 kilometers). Changes appear to be happening faster near the poles than in many other places. In this article we will look at some of these factors in more detail. Distance from the sea (Continentality) The sea affects the climate of a place. Coastal areas are cooler and wetter than inland areas. Clouds form when warm air from inland areas meets cool air from the sea.  The centre of continents are subject to a large range of temperatures.  In the summer, temperatures can be very hot and dry as moisture from the sea evaporates before it reaches the centre of the land mass. Ocean currents Ocean currents can increase or reduce temperatures. The diagram below shows the ocean currents of the world (view original source map). The main ocean current that affects the UK is the Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream is a warm ocean current in the North Atlantic flowing from the Gulf of Mexico, northeast along the U.S coast, and from there to the British Isles. The Gulf of Mexico has higher air temperatures than Britain as it is closer to the equator.  This means that the air coming from the Gulf of Mexico to Britain is also warm.  However, the air is also quite moist as it travels over the Atlantic ocean.  This is one reason why Britain often receives wet weather. The Gulf Stream keeps the west coast of Europe free from ice in the winter and, in the summer, warmer than other places of a similar latitude.   Global Cooling Or Warming: What Are The Key Parameters: Humans Below you can find a list of parameters what made earth climate to change from the moment our Earth had an atmosphere and humanity appeared. We cannot forget the influence of humans on our climate.  Early on in human history our effect on the climate would have been quite small. However, as populations increased and trees were cut down in large numbers, so our influence on the climate increased. Trees take in carbon dioxide and produce oxygen. A reduction in trees will therefore have increased the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Agricultural Revolution: There have been several periods of history called "agricultural revolutions," but the term typically refers to 10,000 years BCE, when humans first learned how to create stationary, farming-based socities. The oldest form of human civilization is that of hunter-gatherer tribes, where every member of the tribe has to contribute to finding food. This changed with the agricultural revolution, which allowed people to grow a surplus of food, whether that be in the form of planting crops or breeding livestock. This eventually led to the industrial revolution, when humans began growing fossil fuels and putting out greenhouse gasses at an unprecedented rate. Some greenhouse gasses are contributed by animals themselves, such as carbon dioxide from their breath or methane from their flatulence. Agricultural development also leads to clearing of land to use for farms, which continuously decreases the amount of trees that can absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide. The Industrial Revolution, starting at the end of the 19th Century, has had a huge effect on climate. The invention of the motor engine and the increased burning of fossil fuels have increased the amount of carbon dioxide (a greenhouse gas - more on that later) in the atmosphere.  The number of trees being cut down has also increased, reducing the amount of carbon dioxide that is taken up by forests. Aerosols The importance of atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide for climate is well known and well publicised. However the tiny particles that are present in the atmosphere, or aerosols, also play crucial roles in weather and climate. Atmospheric aerosols can be either solid or liquid, with diameters of a few nanometers to tens of microns. There are two broad classes of aerosols. Primary aerosols are generated or emitted as solid particles, for example Saharan dust, sea salt or soot. Secondary aerosols are formed in the atmosphere by chemical reactions, for example ammonium sulphate aerosols are formed from the gases sulphur dioxide and ammonia, whilst organic aerosols are formed by chemical reactions acting on chemicals such as isoprene which is emitted by vegetation. Some aerosols have mainly natural origins (dust, sea salt, volcanic ash and volcanic sulphates), whilst others result at least partly from human activities (some soot, ammonium sulphate and ammonium nitrate). Aerosols are often mixed together, and can also be described by their size, eg. PM10 is particles with diameter less than 10 micron. Once in the atmosphere, aerosols can have a variety of impacts. Aerosols reflect and absorb radiation from the sun. Thus a large concentration of most aerosol types will tend to scatter sunlight back to space, preventing the direct beam reaching the Earth's surface. This can lead to a cooling of the earth's surface, a change in the fluxes of latent heat and sensible heat, and a change in the distribution of heating in the atmosphere. Whilst the direct beam is prevented from reaching the surface, more scattered light is available and this affects photosynthesis. High aerosol concentrations can improve plant productivity, until other effects such as temperature or plant physiological issues become dominant. Aerosols are also responsible for clouds, and rainfall. Cloud droplets require an initial "seed" to start the condensation of water - this is provided by aerosols. Changes in aerosol can therefore lead to changes in cloud properties. For example, an increase in aerosol concentration in a cloudy region might mean more seeds for the water to condense on, therefore the available water is spread over a larger number of droplets and each individual droplet is smaller. Smaller droplets reflect more light, and this "indirect effect" of aerosol on cloud can lead to a cooling of the Earth's surface.   Why Doesn’t The Temperature Rise At The Same Rate That CO2 Increases? The amount of CO2 is increasing all the time - we just passed a landmark 414 parts per million concentration of atmospheric CO2, up from around 280ppm before the industrial revolution. That’s a 42.8% increase. A tiny amount of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, like methane and water vapour, keep the Earth’s surface 30°Celsius (54°F) warmer than it would be without them. We have added 47% more CO2 but that doesn't mean the temperature will go up by 47% too. There are several reasons why. Doubling the amount of CO2 does not double the greenhouse effect. The way the climate reacts is also complex, and it is difficult to separate the effects of natural changes from man-made ones over short periods of time. As the amount of man-made CO2 goes up, temperatures do not rise at the same rate. In fact, although estimates vary - climate sensitivity is a hot topic in climate science IPCC report AR4 described the likely range as between 2 and 4.5 degrees C, for double the amount of CO2 compared to pre-industrial levels. So far, the average global temperature has gone up by about 0.8 degrees C (1.4 F). According to an ongoing temperature analysis conducted by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)…the average global temperature on Earth has increased by about 0.8°Celsius (1.4°Fahrenheit) since 1880. Two-thirds of the warming has occurred since 1975, at a rate of roughly 0.15-0.20°C per decade. The speed of the increase is worth noting too. Unfortunately, as this quaote from NASA demonstrates, antropogenic climate change is happening very quickly compared to changes that occured in the past. As the Earth moved out of ice ages over the past million years, the global temperature rose a total of 4 to 7 degrees Celsius over about 5,000 years. In the past century alone, the temperature has climbed 0.7 degrees Celsius, roughly ten times faster than the average rate of ice-age-recovery warming. Small increases in temperature can be hard to measure over short periods, because they can be masked by natural variation. For example, cycles of warming and cooling in the oceans cause temperature changes, but they are hard to separate from small changes in temperature caused by CO2 emissions which occur at the same time. Tiny particle emissions from burning coal or wood are also being researched, because they may be having a cooling effect. Scientists like to measure changes over long periods so that the effects of short natural variations can be distinguished from the effects of man-made CO2. The rate of surface warming has slowed in the past decade. Yet the physical properties of CO2 and other greenhouse gases cannot change. The same energy they were re-radiating back to Earth during previous decades must be evident now, subject only to changes in the amount of energy arriving from the sun - and we know that has changed very little. But if that’s true, where is this heat going? The answer is into the deep oceans. The way heat moves in the deep oceans is not well understood. Improvements in measurement techniques have allowed scientists to more accurately gauge the amount of energy the oceans are absorbing. The Earth’s climate is a complex system, acting in ways we can’t always predict. The energy that man-made CO2 is adding to the climate is not currently showing up as surface warming, because most of the heat is going into the oceans. Currently, the heat is moving downwards from the ocean surface to deeper waters. The surface gets cooler, humidity reduces (water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas), and air temperatures go down. The rate at which surface temperatures go up is not proportional to the rate of CO2 emissions, but to the total amount of atmospheric CO2 added since the start of the industrial revolution. Only by looking at long-term trends - 30 years is the standard period in climate science - can we measure surface temperature increases accurately, and distinguish them from short-term natural variation.    Climate Sensitivity Climate sensitivity is a measurement of how much the Earth will warm for a given increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. More specifically, it is the average change in the Earth's surface temperature in response to changes in radiative forcing, the difference between incoming and outgoing energy on Earth.  Natural temperature variability (black dots) compared to simulations of variability from climate models with higher climate sensitivity (magenta) and lower climate sensitivity (green). Each line represents the results from one model. Climate sensitivity is a key measure in climate science, but its magnitude is not very well known. If climate sensitivity turns out to be on the high side of what scientists estimate, it will be more difficult to achieve the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to below 2 °C (3.6 °F).   CO2 Lags Temperature Science must have asked if the sequence - CO2 increases, temperature increases – has been confirmed by empirical evidence? Some scientists did that and found the empirical evidence showed it was not true. Why isn’t this central to all debate about anthropogenic global warming? The most important assumption behind the hypothesis that human activities are causing global warming is that an increase in global atmospheric CO2 will cause an increase in the average annual global temperature. The assumption became almost the total focus of the IPCC because of the definition of climate change given them by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). As I recall, nobody at the time challenged the assumption that an increase in CO2 caused an increase in global temperature. Rather, the challenges focused on how the definition allowed the IPCC to downplay the much greater volume and importance of water vapor as a greenhouse gas. It allowed the IPCC to effectively overlook it because while humans produce water vapor, the amount is insignificant relative to the total atmospheric volume. In 1999 the first significant long term Antarctic ice core record appeared. Earlier cores were in the record, but as I recall, the one by Petit, Raynaud, and Lorius were presented as the best representation of temperature, CO2, and deuterium over 420,000-year core drilled to 3623 meters. I recall Lorius warning people not to rush to judgment. One of his concerns was the size of the graph depicting such a long record. Lorius reconfirmed this position in a 2007 article. “…our (East Antarctica, Dome C) ice core shows no indication that greenhouse gases have played a key role in such a coupling (with radiative forcing)” The question is how did the interpretation become that, the Antarctic ice core record confirmed that a CO2 increase causes a temperature increase. It could be the nature of the graph as Lorius said. The Lorius warning didn’t prevent people automatically assuming it confirmed the CO2 preceding temperature increase relationship. However, Nova concluded after expanding and more closely examining the data that, the bottom line is that rising temperatures cause carbon levels to rise. Carbon may still influence temperatures, but these ice cores are neutral on that. If both factors caused each other to rise significantly, positive feedback would become exponential. We’d see a runaway greenhouse effect. It hasn’t happened. Some other factor is more important than carbon dioxide, or carbon’s role is minor. How about considering carbon dioxide’s role is non-existent? Fortunately, after the 1999 paper was released, a few people didn’t accept everything at face value and began to test the data. By 2003 Caillon et al., (including Jouzel) produced “Timing of Atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic Temperature Changes Across Termination III.” Here the concern was more with the “gas age-ice age” difference. This speaks to the problem that it takes decades for the gas in the bubble to become enclosed or trapped. In a 2006 paper, the authors state; gas is trapped in polar ice at depths of ~50–120 m and is therefore significantly younger than the ice in which it is embedded. The age difference is not well constrained for slowly accumulating ice on the East Antarctic Plateau, introducing a significant uncertainty into chronologies of the oldest deep ice cores. In the case of slowly accumulating East Antarctic ice cores, this difference is very large, up to 7 kyr during glacial periods, and the timing of climate changes recorded in the two phases will not be accurate unless the gas age–ice age difference can be well constrained. This means the only thing we can conclude agrees with Nova that temperature increases before CO2. It is important to note that more precise correlation between temperature and CO2 is made difficult by the application of a 70-year smoothing average to the raw data. The impact of this smoothing on the elimination of data that would help resolve the relationship and lag time. It is seen in the 2000-year comparison of different measures of atmospheric CO2. It is reasonable to say that virtually all potential diagnoses are eliminated by the removal of annual variation, but especially the sequence of events. Notice that the overall atmospheric average of CO2 is different, approximately 260 ppm to 300 ppm. This is a difference that the IPCC claim took us from about 50% CO2 control of global temperature in 1950 to 95% + today. Amazingly, despite many decades of climate science, there has never been a study focused on how long it takes to feel the warming from a particular emission of carbon dioxide, taking carbon-climate uncertainties into consideration.  In a recent letter, Ricke and Caldeira (2014 Environ. Res. Lett. 9 124002) estimated that the timing between an emission and the maximum temperature response is a decade on average. In their analysis, they took into account uncertainties about the carbon cycle, the rate of ocean heat uptake and the climate sensitivity but did not consider one important uncertainty: the size of the emission. Using simulations with an Earth System Model we show that the time lag between a carbon dioxide (CO2) emission pulse and the maximum warming increases for larger pulses. Our results suggest that as CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere, the full warming effect of an emission may not be felt for several decades, if not centuries. In a 'plain language' summary by Nic Lewis on Judith Curry’s website of a paper released by a group from the UK Met Office under lead author Andrews we learn, The simulations show that the models’ effective climate sensitivity is substantially lower when driven by an observationally-based estimate of the evolution of SST (sea surface temperature) and sea-ice over the historical period than when responding to long-term CO2 forcing. This finding underlies the authors’ conclusion that climate sensitivity estimates based on observed historical warming are too low. Climate sensitivity is the effect on global temperature of a change in forcing, in this case, the forcing is an increase in CO2. This accepts the assumption that a CO2 increase causes a temperature increase. The Andrews et al., although done using a model, shows that when the authors used empirical data the CO2 increase was “substantially lower.” Don’t forget, this is for just two variables, sea-ice and Sea Surface Temperatures (SST). Is it possible that with many more empirical values the climate sensitivity would go to zero? That is the empirical evidence based on studies and decrease in sensitivity over the last few years The issue of CO2 climate sensitivity is central to the entire history of scientific examination. Academics, including those in the natural sciences, love to use argumentum ad verecundiam (appeal to authority) to bolster their studies. I am not saying there is no greenhouse effect. I am saying that the empirical evidence shows that an increase in CO2 does not cause an increase in temperature. Further, it appears that the entire greenhouse effect is reasonably explained by water vapor. Besides variation in water vapor is just one variable in a complex array of variables that cause climate change, which can cause global warming or global cooling.      CO2 Matters Because It Doesn’t: Politics Thatcher Margaret Thatcher biography: The visionary scientist who saw the climate change challenge ahead  The climate deniers' greatest success during the early 2000s was the apparent conversion of Margaret Thatcher - when she abandoned the climate cause she so forcefully and eloquently championed as the British prime minister. Thatcher published her autobiography Statecraft in 2002, shortly before she stepped out of the limelight due to her failing health. The autobiography included a long passage in which she renounced her former beliefs and even revised the meaning of her original 1990 address. In her 1990 speech, Thatcher praised the creation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), called for precautionary action, and argued that economic growth must benefit “future as well as present generations everywhere.” Economic Growth But, her autobiography states: “By the end of my time as Prime Minister I was also becoming seriously concerned about the anti-capitalist arguments which the campaigners against global warming were deploying. “So in a speech to scientists in 1990 I observed: whatever international action we agree upon to deal with environmental problems, we must enable all our economies to grow and develop because without growth you cannot generate the wealth required to pay for the protection of the environment.” The Iron Lady's complete and dramatic U-turn meant that her free market admirers could reclaim her legacy and erase from history her arguments that economic growth must be environmentally sustainable while the public seemed to have mostly forgotten that one of the earliest champions of legally binding international agreements was, in fact, a staunch Conservative and economic Liberal. Environmental Enemy The cause of this volte-face was very evidently the belief that environmentalism was simply the old enemy of Socialism in a new guise, as presented by free market economists Friedrich von Hayek and Antony Fisher, and the think tanks they inspired. “The doomsters’ favourite subject today is climate change,” she wrote. “Clearly no plan to alter climate could be considered on anything but a global scale, it provides a marvellous excuse for worldwide, supra-national socialism.” She attacked former US vice president Al Gore directly and argued that “Kyoto was an anti-growth, anti-capitalist, anti-American project which no American leader alert to his country’s national interests could have supported.” Free Market Inspiration Thatcher, in her notes, expressed gratitude for the fact that “the issues have been clearly analysed and debated by scholars in the United States.” She informed her readers that her revised position on climate change was based on reading Julian Morris’s Climate Change: Challenging the Conventional Wisdom published by her old friends at the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA), Richard Lindzen’s Global Warming: The Origin and Nature of the Alleged Scientific Consensus from the Koch- and Exxon-funded free market Cato Institute and Fred Singer’s Climate Policy: From Rio to Kyoto: A Political Issue for 2000 and Beyond put out by the right wing Centre for the New Europe. All three men were members of free market think tanks and were funding recipients from the fossil fuel industry. And so the former prime minister, in turning to scepticism, relied almost entirely on publications put out by free market lobby groups, rather than relying on the scientific literature. Successfully neutralised Her new denial of the science rested on a pamphlet from the Reason Foundation published in December 1997 and titled A Plain English Guide to Climate Science. The guide claimed that: “It is widely acknowledged that the potential temperature changes predicted by global warming theory do not pose a direct threat to human life. Human beings, and a myriad of other organisms, exist quite comfortably in areas with temperature ranges more extreme than those predicted by global warming models.” The Foundation received $70,000 the following year from ExxonMobil to “assess public policy alternatives on issues with direct bearing on the company's business operations and interests.” And so, the political consensus – that the science of climate change had alerted the world to the need for urgent and dramatic improvements to the clean production of energy – had been broken, and one of the earliest and keenest advocates had been successfully neutralised by the sceptics. Thatcher’s legacy would simply be the rapid and controversial implementation of the free market in Britain, which would reverberate through the economies of the world and have serious ecological implications. Reagan, IPCC Photo by: The Irish Times 1984 The United States Environmental Protection Agency and State Department wanted an international convention to agree restrictions on greenhouse gases, and the conservative Reagan Administration was concerned about unrestrained influence from independent scientists or from United Nations bodies including UNEP and the WMO. The U.S. government was the main force in forming the IPCC as an autonomous intergovernmental body in which scientists took part both as experts on the science and as official representatives of their governments, to produce reports which had the firm backing of all the leading scientists worldwide researching the topic, and which then had to gain consensus agreement from every one of the participating governments. In this way, it was formed as a hybrid between a scientific body and an intergovernmental political organisation   Global Cooling Or Warming. CO2 Matters Because It Doesn’t: Conclusion The above written is a collection of events past, present which all make up for our climate, our present climate. Natural and man-made parameters are mentioned and sure there are many more. They all interact, amplify and weaken each other in cycles, almost cycles and absolute randomness. There are past events which show that climate changes can happen rapidly and present in combination what humanity throws to nature it ‘could’ result in our present climate. There have been high CO2 levels in the past with lower temperatures and the other way round. So why the focus on CO2. It is easy to describe and understandable for ‘many’. Besides it is easy the measure. To understand our climate and all the processes which are involved is already too difficult to understand for scientists let alone for ‘you and me’. Photo By: Scott Rodgerson Of course there will be a moment in the future that our fossils fuels are coming to an end or getting too expensive because of its scarcity. So somewhere in time there had to be a decision made to let humanity be convinced to start with reorganizing our society and start looking for alternatives. So what an easy and for all understandable phenomenon 'CO2 rise' is to start this shift, this transition. So, yes I am still increasingly surprised that until the 1970s we considered the climate as the result of the action of the great forces of nature (the influence of the sun, the thermostat action of the water, as vapor, liquid and ice, the effects of the heat flows in the mantle and the effect on volcanism, on land and under water, and perhaps even the effect of greenhouses on that thin shell atmosphere). Then suddenly AGW came into view and those large forces of nature, which of course continue to work, were left out of consideration. Why did that happen? I cannot give scientific but political and activist reasons. Who helps me out of the dream? Reason for me to get an earlier analysis from the old box. I thought it was still current. The proposition that the climate changes as a result of human activities due to the emission of CO2 and other greenhouse gases that enhance the natural greenhouse effect seems to have become dogma over time. And all of that would have all kinds of disastrous consequences. Even more important is that by 'only pointing to CO2' which humanity pumps into the atmosphere the idea got procliamed that humanity was also in charge to limit greenhouse gasses and therefore could change the climate in our benefit. Never gets mentioned the feedback processes and the many other events which makes that certain effects wil take ten or hundreds of years to fade out. Also politicians make twist and turns depending on what they expect from economical growth, the fossil fuel industry and the wish to deal with independent scientists. The other way around the influence from large industries and the fossil fuel industry via lobbyists on politicians and scientists. We will never know the exact reason and motivation why the message about climate change is brought as it is. One thing is for sure that the message is incomplete and driven by economic, political interests and to give you and me the idea in a 'makeable world'. About one thing we can all agree; humanity has to pollute less, produce 'cleaner', make the income gap much smaller, spend less on war(mongering) and get the influence from  businesses on political decision making less. Before you go! Recommended:  Climate Change: The Ultimate Culprit For The Insect Die-Off Did you find this an interesting article or do you have a question or remark? Leave a comment below. 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Global Cooling Or Warming: Does CO2 Matter?
Global Cooling Or Warming: Does CO2 Matter?
CO2 At Current Levels Will Cause A High Sea Rise: 16 Meters
Scientists discover evidence that sea-evel rises because of the current atmospheric carbon dioxide. In a Mallorcan cave, they found 4-million-year-old geologic evidence giving them new insight into magnitude global sea-level rise. Sea Rise: 16 Meters An international team is studying the evidence, which is preserved in the coastal cave in Mallorca. The evidence illustrates that three million years ago, the Earth was two to three degree Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial ear. Sea level was 16 meters higher than at this moment. Their findings foresee important implications and understandings about the current-day sea level rise. With these new findings, they can predict the rapidity of sea-level rise in a warming climate. {youtube}                                                  CO2 At Current Levels Will Cause A High Sea Rise: 16 Meters                                                                   The State of Sea Level Rise (2019)   CO2 At Current Levels Will Cause A High Sea Rise The sea level is rising as a result of the ice caps which are melting, such as those of Greenland and Antarctica. But how much and how fast the sea level will rise during global warming is a question that scientists have tried to answer. Reconstructing the ice sheet and the changes in sea level in recent periods, when the climate was naturally warmer than it is today, offers a global laboratory experiment to study this question. This is according to USF PhD student Oana Dumitru, the principal author, who has done much of her data work at UNM under the direction of Asmerom and Polyak. "Limiting models of sea-level rise due to increased global warming depends to a large extent on actual sea level measurements in the past," says Polyak. "This study provides sea-level measurements very robustly during the Pliocene. "We can use the knowledge we have gained from past warm periods to fine-tune ice sheet models which are then used to predict the future response of the ice sheet to current global warming," says Bogdan Onac, professor at the USF Department of Geosciences. Recommended:  Delay Climate Change With Submarines Which Produce Icebergs Changes Can Be Seen In Artà Cave, Mallorca The project centralises on cave deposits known as phreatic overgrowths on speleothems. Every time ancient caves were flooded by rising sea levels, you could see the phreatic excesses at the interface. "Changes in sea level in Artà Cave can be caused by the melting and growth of the ice sheets or by the elevation or subsidence of the island itself," says Columbia University Assistant Professor Jacky Austermann, a member of the research team. She used numerical and statistical models to carefully analyse how much increase or decrease may have occurred since the Pliocene and subtracted it from the height of the formations studied. Artà Cave, Mallorca "Given current melting patterns, this degree of sea-level rise would most likely be caused by a meltdown of both Greenland and the Western Antarctic Ice Sheets," said Dumitru. The writers also measured sea level at 23.5 meters higher than about four million years ago during the Pliocene Climate Optimum, when global average temperatures were up to four °C higher than pre-industrial levels."This is a possible scenario if no active and aggressive reduction of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is undertaken," said Asmerom. We need to do something, to diminish sea level rise. These aragonite crystals formed 4.39 million years ago inside an overgrowth on a cave feature in the Theater Room in Spain’s Artà Caves. The locations and ages of such growths helps researchers track past sea levels Recommended:  Climate Change Natural Man Made: Causes And Facts CO2 At Current Levels Will Cause A High Sea: What Can We Do? Global warmth is unstoppable, but if we emit less CO2 worldwide, it will slow down. We can make some changes in our home. Avoid food waste. We waste a lot of food, and it is not necessary. You did not have to buy the food that disappears into your trash can unused. After all, you did not need it. By purchasing food wisely, storing it well and cooking it to size, you can prevent food from being wasted. You can save up to 210 kilos of CO2 per person per year. Also, if you eat less meat that will help as well. Travel by train instead of plane or car to your holiday destination. Read more about global warmth and CO2-emission to see how you can help the Earth. Recommended:  A Floating Airport Cutting Edge Madness Or Visionary? Did you find this an interesting article or do you have a question or remark? Leave a comment below. We try to respond the same day. Like to write your own article about climate change? Click on  'Register'  or push the button 'Write An Article' on the  'HomePage'
Scientists discover evidence that sea-evel rises because of the current atmospheric carbon dioxide. In a Mallorcan cave, they found 4-million-year-old geologic evidence giving them new insight into magnitude global sea-level rise. Sea Rise: 16 Meters An international team is studying the evidence, which is preserved in the coastal cave in Mallorca. The evidence illustrates that three million years ago, the Earth was two to three degree Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial ear. Sea level was 16 meters higher than at this moment. Their findings foresee important implications and understandings about the current-day sea level rise. With these new findings, they can predict the rapidity of sea-level rise in a warming climate. {youtube}                                                  CO2 At Current Levels Will Cause A High Sea Rise: 16 Meters                                                                   The State of Sea Level Rise (2019)   CO2 At Current Levels Will Cause A High Sea Rise The sea level is rising as a result of the ice caps which are melting, such as those of Greenland and Antarctica. But how much and how fast the sea level will rise during global warming is a question that scientists have tried to answer. Reconstructing the ice sheet and the changes in sea level in recent periods, when the climate was naturally warmer than it is today, offers a global laboratory experiment to study this question. This is according to USF PhD student Oana Dumitru, the principal author, who has done much of her data work at UNM under the direction of Asmerom and Polyak. "Limiting models of sea-level rise due to increased global warming depends to a large extent on actual sea level measurements in the past," says Polyak. "This study provides sea-level measurements very robustly during the Pliocene. "We can use the knowledge we have gained from past warm periods to fine-tune ice sheet models which are then used to predict the future response of the ice sheet to current global warming," says Bogdan Onac, professor at the USF Department of Geosciences. Recommended:  Delay Climate Change With Submarines Which Produce Icebergs Changes Can Be Seen In Artà Cave, Mallorca The project centralises on cave deposits known as phreatic overgrowths on speleothems. Every time ancient caves were flooded by rising sea levels, you could see the phreatic excesses at the interface. "Changes in sea level in Artà Cave can be caused by the melting and growth of the ice sheets or by the elevation or subsidence of the island itself," says Columbia University Assistant Professor Jacky Austermann, a member of the research team. She used numerical and statistical models to carefully analyse how much increase or decrease may have occurred since the Pliocene and subtracted it from the height of the formations studied. Artà Cave, Mallorca "Given current melting patterns, this degree of sea-level rise would most likely be caused by a meltdown of both Greenland and the Western Antarctic Ice Sheets," said Dumitru. The writers also measured sea level at 23.5 meters higher than about four million years ago during the Pliocene Climate Optimum, when global average temperatures were up to four °C higher than pre-industrial levels."This is a possible scenario if no active and aggressive reduction of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is undertaken," said Asmerom. We need to do something, to diminish sea level rise. These aragonite crystals formed 4.39 million years ago inside an overgrowth on a cave feature in the Theater Room in Spain’s Artà Caves. The locations and ages of such growths helps researchers track past sea levels Recommended:  Climate Change Natural Man Made: Causes And Facts CO2 At Current Levels Will Cause A High Sea: What Can We Do? Global warmth is unstoppable, but if we emit less CO2 worldwide, it will slow down. We can make some changes in our home. Avoid food waste. We waste a lot of food, and it is not necessary. You did not have to buy the food that disappears into your trash can unused. After all, you did not need it. By purchasing food wisely, storing it well and cooking it to size, you can prevent food from being wasted. You can save up to 210 kilos of CO2 per person per year. Also, if you eat less meat that will help as well. Travel by train instead of plane or car to your holiday destination. Read more about global warmth and CO2-emission to see how you can help the Earth. Recommended:  A Floating Airport Cutting Edge Madness Or Visionary? Did you find this an interesting article or do you have a question or remark? Leave a comment below. We try to respond the same day. Like to write your own article about climate change? Click on  'Register'  or push the button 'Write An Article' on the  'HomePage'
CO2 At Current Levels Will Cause A High Sea Rise: 16 Meters
CO2 At Current Levels Will Cause A High Sea Rise: 16 Meters
Storms After Dennis: Extreme Weather Rising?
Storm Dennis left a trail of devastation as it swept across Flanders and the UK on Sunday. Gusts were stronger than last weekend when Storm Ciara had the country in its grip. Two storms in a week isn’t all that exceptional and the worst may not be over. Storms Ellen and Francis could be on the way as early as next weekend (22, 23th of February 2020). Storms After Dennis: Is Extreme Weather Rising? At the minute it’s too early to offer details. They are coming from the North of the Atlantic. They still need to be formed. Storm Dennis meant gusty conditions and heavy rain especially towards evening. In Stabroek (Antwerp Province, Belgium) gusts of 108 km/h were recorded. Average rainfall of 5 to 15 litres per square metre were measured. Highs at 16.6° C in Brussels remained exceptionally mild.  It was nearly 18°C in the Kempen District. Storm Dennis caused greater damage than Storm Ciara thanks to stronger gusts inland.  Storm Dennis Knocked On Your Door Last Weekend (15/16 February 2020) Jump quickly to subject by clicking on: Extreme Weather Events In Europe On The Rise Damage Statistics Storm And Flood Trends Recommended:  Climate Extremes Australia Floods, Wildfires And Destruction After storm Ciara came storm Dennis. Dennis started in the Atlantic Ocean and reached Ireland and the Uk on Saterday (15th) and the Netherlands on Sunday (16th) afternoon. Storm Dennis generated winds of up to 100 to 120km/h on the northwest coast and on the Wadden Islands. Storm Dennis caused more damage then Ciara. When did the North Sea 'flood'? The 1953 North Sea flood was a major flood caused by a heavy storm that occurred on the night of Saturday, 31 January 1953 and morning of Sunday, 1 February 1953. The floods struck the Netherlands, Belgium, England and Scotland. {youtube}                                           STORM DENNIS to batter UK this weekend with heavy rain and gales Dennis got his name from the Brits, just like Ciara. The names don’t carry any significance, they were sent in by the public, says a Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) spokesperson. The next storm will also get a name sent in by the Brits, but after that, it’s time for one sent in by the Dutch public. Goeree-Overflakkee (Zuid-Holland, Netherlands) during the major flood in 1953 The sixth storm will get the name Francis, after Francis Beaufort, creator of the Beaufort scale used to measure wind speed. The storm after Francis will get the Dutch name Gerda. After that, we’ll have to wait until J and P for the Dutch names Jan and Piet. Does Europe get hit by hurricanes? There is only one modern tropical cyclone officially regarded as directly impacting Europe, Hurricane Vince in 2005, which struck southwestern Spain—having made landfall in the European mainland while still fully tropical. Storms can move around the Bermuda high and turn to the northeast and affect Europe. Storm Dennis Passed: One Storm After Another It seemed we had to wait some more for calm spring weather, as Storm Dennis emerged last Sunday. First it was a nameless storm on Sunday the 9 th  when it appeared. Yes, it was nameless, unlike the recent Ciara because it was significantly weaker, reaching only 98 kilometres, compared to the heavier Ciara which had winds of up to 129 kilometres. Recommended:  Cooling Earth By A Sun Dimming Effect Or Warming By More CO2 Storms After Dennis: Windy, Rainy And Snowy The Rest Of Week 7 Unfortunately, the weather did not significantly improve in week 7 of 2020. It showed it's typical mix of hail, the occasional sunshine peak, long enough only for you to miss it when it was gone, as well as potential wet snow in some places. The wind force also remained substantial at the coasts, reaching level 8, while being level 5 inland.  Was Ciara a hurricane? Storm Ciara was an active extratropical cyclone, and the third named storm of the 2019–20 Ireland, Netherlands and UK windstorm season. Ciara brought heavy rain and severe winds across much of the United Kingdom, Ireland, Sweden and other northern regions in Europe. Ciara is a popular Irish given name. Storm Dennis  Another 'named windy' visitor came last weekend. The weather teased us by becoming somewhat better on Friday (14th of February), but you needed not to be 'worried', there was no calm after the Ciara storm, just more storm. On Sunday Storm Dennis came on our doorway. It also got 15 degrees Celsius in some areas in the south last weekend. What is your weather forecast for this week: first days of spring or last days of winter? Let us know in the comment Boxes below this article. Recommended:  Climate Change Africa, Pakistan: Locust Destroy All Crops Storm Dennis At 'Our Neighbors' Ireland And The UK A number of sailings from Belfast, Dublin and Rosslare had been delayed or cancelled as an orange weather marine warning remained in place, along with a yellow weather snow/ice warning which was in place until midnight last Sunday the 16th of February 2020. Met Éireann issued a number of warnings over the days before as a cold snap set in across the country in the aftermath of a nationwide orange weather warning at the weekend when Storm Ciara made landfall. Storm Dennis on it's way The Met Office in the UK, meanwhile had issued a warning over Storm Dennis which was on the way but predicted not to be as severe as Storm Ciara. Strong westerly winds continuid and high seas resulted in coastal floodings, especially around high tide. Gale force Meanwhile, an orange weather warning for coastal waters was in place as westerly winds reached gale force 8 or stronger gale 9 on all Irish coastal waters and on the Irish Sea. What was the heaviest storm in the UK The Great Storm of 1987 was a violent extratropical cyclone that occurred on the night of 15–16 October, with hurricane-force winds causing casualties in England, France and the Channel Islands as a severe depression in the Bay of Biscay moved northeast. It 'occasionally touched storm force 10', Met Éireann announced. The wind warning prompted ferry operator Stena Line to cancel a number of crossings as a result. In a statement, it stated, Stena Line is continuing to see disruptions to its ferry sailings on the Irish Sea caused by high winds and rough seas in the aftermath of Storm Ciara. As a result, sailings from Belfast to Liverpool have been delayed and Belfast to Heysham sailings have been cancelled. The Dublin to Holyhead route experienced delays of around an hour, while an early morning sailing was cancelled. All sailings from Rosslare were cancelled and resumed at 8am. Overall, the weather forecast for the coming week looked 'unsettled but turning less cold from Thursday (13th of February0'. Ahead of Storm Dennis’ landfall in the UK, the Met Office had issued wind warnings for much of England and Wales for Saturday the 15th. A statement said: 'Storm Dennis brought a range of impacts, including delays and cancellations to transport services, damage to power supplies and large coastal waves. Another spell of very wet and windy ​weather came on Saturday, although Storm Dennis was not expected to be as severe as Ciara disruption came. Below a checklist (UK) of five steps that every household at risk of flooding should implement: Have a home emergency plan in place, which would include what to do in a flood and other scenarios such as a fire. Check that home insurance includes flood cover, and make sure that any changes to the T&Cs in the future do not change the type of cover you think you have. Sign up to receive Floodline alerts – the service is free and messages can be received in different formats (by phone, SMS). If Sepa (or bodies such as the Environment Agency in other parts of the UK) make river level data for a water body near where you live publicly available use this resource. Make use of publicly available resources such as Sepa’s flood risk maps to find out if a property you are considering buying is at risk of flooding. Damage And Fatalities Extreme Weather Events In Europe On The Rise: Before Dennis In the last two decades there has hardly been a year without weather disasters like storms in Europe. There were (mostly river) floods, in Italy, France and Switzerland in 2000, in the upper Elbe and Danube catchments in 2002 and 2013, along the lower Danube in 2006, in the United Kingdom in 2007, in the Adriatic region in 2014, and in Germany and France in 2016. Flood in Dresden (Germany) Severe heat waves and droughts marked the summers of 2003, 2010 and 2018, and large-scale wildfires burned in southern and eastern Europe in 2007, 2010 and 2017. Hailstorms caused a lot of damage in Germany in 2013, and the winter storms Kyrill (2007) and Xynthia (2010) left a trail of destruction in Western Europe. Social Disruption resulted from extreme snowpack in the northern Alps in 2006 and 2019. Storms Like Dennis: Munich Re Has Collected Information On These Events Since 1974  The company’s NatCatSERVICE database on losses caused by natural extreme events is among the world's largest and contains more than 40,000 entries. A distinction is made between disastrous weather events and geophysical events. The latter include earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis. The weather disasters include winter storms and storm surges, thunderstorms and flash floods, river and lake flooding, landslides, winter hazards, heat waves, droughts, and wildfires.   Damage Statistics: Storms And Floods Dominate 95% of all loss events in the period 1980-2018 are weather-related. Storms make up almost 50% of all events, and flooding almost another third. The so-called 'climatological' events, such as heat waves, droughts, wildfires and frost, account for 16%. The remaining 5% refer to geophysical hazards. A man walks amidst rubble following an earthquake in Pescara del Tronto Winter storms produce losses in excess of one billion dollars practically every year. The most expensive storm disasters since 1990 are winter storms Daria (1990), Lothar (1999), Kyrill (2007), and Xynthia (2010), with overall losses of US$ 7bn, 11.5bn, 9bn, and 6.1bn, respectively. The most expensive weather-related disaster in Europe, affecting large parts of Germany and neighbouring countries, was the 2002 summer flood: two flood events caused a total of US$ 21.5bn (original values, not adjusted for inflation) across the continent. As a result, flood insurance has gained importance. The penetration of flood insurance for private homes in Germany increased countrywide to about 41% in 2018, as compared to around 26% in 2009 and only less than 10% in the year 2002. Recommended:  Climate Change: Cause Of The Next Global Economic Collapse Storms: Europe's Average Annual Losses For 1980-2018 Are Equal To US$ 16.2bn. Casualties: 2003 and 2010 heat waves stand out In all 1,719 events in Europe in which at least one person was killed, storms and floods are leading by a long way. However, 2003 and 2010 stand out as years with extremely high numbers of fatalities in Europe caused by heat waves: 70,000 and 56,000, respectively. These two events dominate the number of weather-related fatalities in Europe since 1980: the number of fatalities by all natural hazards combined in the period 1980-2018 is about 155,000. High Temperature And Storms Also Enhance The Wildfire Danger Wildfires in 2003 caused US$ 1.2bn of damage and killed 70 people in southern Europe. In 2010, the fires around Moscow approached a US$ 2bn loss and claimed 130 lives. More recently, in the summer of 2017, 123 people died in several wildfire episodes, 110 of them in Portugal alone. In 2018, 100 people perished in wildfires in Greece.   Storm And Flood Trends? With respect to damage, the number of severe floods seems to be increasing. With respect to fatalities, the mortality risk related to heat waves has been on the rise. Heat wave frequency, duration, and intensity are increasing, while resistance is decreasing because European societies are ageing. Local inhabitants are evacuated from a flooded village of Sokolniki in Southern Poland, May 20, 2010 Altogether, from 1980 to 2018, 4,890 destructive weather events have been recorded in this database for Europe. 837 Of the events occurred in the 1980s, 1,239 in the 1990s, 1,345 in the first decade of the 21stcentury and 1,469 since 2010. The losses of 525 of these events exceeded US$ 100 m (in original values, not inflation-corrected); 92 were above US$ 1bn, and four even topped US$ 10bn. The number of disastrous weather events in the Munich Re database is growing much faster than the number of geophysical events. Is this due to climate change? For a small part at most. Non-climatic factors such as land-use and land-cover change play a role as well. Nowadays, more people and more valuable assets are exposed to disasters because more people live in unsafe areas, such as floodplains. Extreme Weather Rising? Future Weather Outlook Weather catastrophes constitute a growing burden on national economies and insurance companies, not least because of the costs of precautionary measures. The projections for the future look grim, the authors of this study conclude. The percentage of the European population affected by weather-related disasters may increase by an order of magnitude in a hundred years: from 5% in 1981-2010 to two-thirds by 2100. The record number of heat-related fatalities of 2003 may become the new norm by 2050. Before you go! Recommended:  Climate Change: Hurricane Season With Big And Wet Storms Did you find this an interesting article or do you have a question or remark? Leave a comment below. We try to respond the same day. Like to write your own article about the weather? Click on  'Register'  or push the button 'Write An Article' on the  'HomePage'
Storm Dennis left a trail of devastation as it swept across Flanders and the UK on Sunday. Gusts were stronger than last weekend when Storm Ciara had the country in its grip. Two storms in a week isn’t all that exceptional and the worst may not be over. Storms Ellen and Francis could be on the way as early as next weekend (22, 23th of February 2020). Storms After Dennis: Is Extreme Weather Rising? At the minute it’s too early to offer details. They are coming from the North of the Atlantic. They still need to be formed. Storm Dennis meant gusty conditions and heavy rain especially towards evening. In Stabroek (Antwerp Province, Belgium) gusts of 108 km/h were recorded. Average rainfall of 5 to 15 litres per square metre were measured. Highs at 16.6° C in Brussels remained exceptionally mild.  It was nearly 18°C in the Kempen District. Storm Dennis caused greater damage than Storm Ciara thanks to stronger gusts inland.  Storm Dennis Knocked On Your Door Last Weekend (15/16 February 2020) Jump quickly to subject by clicking on: Extreme Weather Events In Europe On The Rise Damage Statistics Storm And Flood Trends Recommended:  Climate Extremes Australia Floods, Wildfires And Destruction After storm Ciara came storm Dennis. Dennis started in the Atlantic Ocean and reached Ireland and the Uk on Saterday (15th) and the Netherlands on Sunday (16th) afternoon. Storm Dennis generated winds of up to 100 to 120km/h on the northwest coast and on the Wadden Islands. Storm Dennis caused more damage then Ciara. When did the North Sea 'flood'? The 1953 North Sea flood was a major flood caused by a heavy storm that occurred on the night of Saturday, 31 January 1953 and morning of Sunday, 1 February 1953. The floods struck the Netherlands, Belgium, England and Scotland. {youtube}                                           STORM DENNIS to batter UK this weekend with heavy rain and gales Dennis got his name from the Brits, just like Ciara. The names don’t carry any significance, they were sent in by the public, says a Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) spokesperson. The next storm will also get a name sent in by the Brits, but after that, it’s time for one sent in by the Dutch public. Goeree-Overflakkee (Zuid-Holland, Netherlands) during the major flood in 1953 The sixth storm will get the name Francis, after Francis Beaufort, creator of the Beaufort scale used to measure wind speed. The storm after Francis will get the Dutch name Gerda. After that, we’ll have to wait until J and P for the Dutch names Jan and Piet. Does Europe get hit by hurricanes? There is only one modern tropical cyclone officially regarded as directly impacting Europe, Hurricane Vince in 2005, which struck southwestern Spain—having made landfall in the European mainland while still fully tropical. Storms can move around the Bermuda high and turn to the northeast and affect Europe. Storm Dennis Passed: One Storm After Another It seemed we had to wait some more for calm spring weather, as Storm Dennis emerged last Sunday. First it was a nameless storm on Sunday the 9 th  when it appeared. Yes, it was nameless, unlike the recent Ciara because it was significantly weaker, reaching only 98 kilometres, compared to the heavier Ciara which had winds of up to 129 kilometres. Recommended:  Cooling Earth By A Sun Dimming Effect Or Warming By More CO2 Storms After Dennis: Windy, Rainy And Snowy The Rest Of Week 7 Unfortunately, the weather did not significantly improve in week 7 of 2020. It showed it's typical mix of hail, the occasional sunshine peak, long enough only for you to miss it when it was gone, as well as potential wet snow in some places. The wind force also remained substantial at the coasts, reaching level 8, while being level 5 inland.  Was Ciara a hurricane? Storm Ciara was an active extratropical cyclone, and the third named storm of the 2019–20 Ireland, Netherlands and UK windstorm season. Ciara brought heavy rain and severe winds across much of the United Kingdom, Ireland, Sweden and other northern regions in Europe. Ciara is a popular Irish given name. Storm Dennis  Another 'named windy' visitor came last weekend. The weather teased us by becoming somewhat better on Friday (14th of February), but you needed not to be 'worried', there was no calm after the Ciara storm, just more storm. On Sunday Storm Dennis came on our doorway. It also got 15 degrees Celsius in some areas in the south last weekend. What is your weather forecast for this week: first days of spring or last days of winter? Let us know in the comment Boxes below this article. Recommended:  Climate Change Africa, Pakistan: Locust Destroy All Crops Storm Dennis At 'Our Neighbors' Ireland And The UK A number of sailings from Belfast, Dublin and Rosslare had been delayed or cancelled as an orange weather marine warning remained in place, along with a yellow weather snow/ice warning which was in place until midnight last Sunday the 16th of February 2020. Met Éireann issued a number of warnings over the days before as a cold snap set in across the country in the aftermath of a nationwide orange weather warning at the weekend when Storm Ciara made landfall. Storm Dennis on it's way The Met Office in the UK, meanwhile had issued a warning over Storm Dennis which was on the way but predicted not to be as severe as Storm Ciara. Strong westerly winds continuid and high seas resulted in coastal floodings, especially around high tide. Gale force Meanwhile, an orange weather warning for coastal waters was in place as westerly winds reached gale force 8 or stronger gale 9 on all Irish coastal waters and on the Irish Sea. What was the heaviest storm in the UK The Great Storm of 1987 was a violent extratropical cyclone that occurred on the night of 15–16 October, with hurricane-force winds causing casualties in England, France and the Channel Islands as a severe depression in the Bay of Biscay moved northeast. It 'occasionally touched storm force 10', Met Éireann announced. The wind warning prompted ferry operator Stena Line to cancel a number of crossings as a result. In a statement, it stated, Stena Line is continuing to see disruptions to its ferry sailings on the Irish Sea caused by high winds and rough seas in the aftermath of Storm Ciara. As a result, sailings from Belfast to Liverpool have been delayed and Belfast to Heysham sailings have been cancelled. The Dublin to Holyhead route experienced delays of around an hour, while an early morning sailing was cancelled. All sailings from Rosslare were cancelled and resumed at 8am. Overall, the weather forecast for the coming week looked 'unsettled but turning less cold from Thursday (13th of February0'. Ahead of Storm Dennis’ landfall in the UK, the Met Office had issued wind warnings for much of England and Wales for Saturday the 15th. A statement said: 'Storm Dennis brought a range of impacts, including delays and cancellations to transport services, damage to power supplies and large coastal waves. Another spell of very wet and windy ​weather came on Saturday, although Storm Dennis was not expected to be as severe as Ciara disruption came. Below a checklist (UK) of five steps that every household at risk of flooding should implement: Have a home emergency plan in place, which would include what to do in a flood and other scenarios such as a fire. Check that home insurance includes flood cover, and make sure that any changes to the T&Cs in the future do not change the type of cover you think you have. Sign up to receive Floodline alerts – the service is free and messages can be received in different formats (by phone, SMS). If Sepa (or bodies such as the Environment Agency in other parts of the UK) make river level data for a water body near where you live publicly available use this resource. Make use of publicly available resources such as Sepa’s flood risk maps to find out if a property you are considering buying is at risk of flooding. Damage And Fatalities Extreme Weather Events In Europe On The Rise: Before Dennis In the last two decades there has hardly been a year without weather disasters like storms in Europe. There were (mostly river) floods, in Italy, France and Switzerland in 2000, in the upper Elbe and Danube catchments in 2002 and 2013, along the lower Danube in 2006, in the United Kingdom in 2007, in the Adriatic region in 2014, and in Germany and France in 2016. Flood in Dresden (Germany) Severe heat waves and droughts marked the summers of 2003, 2010 and 2018, and large-scale wildfires burned in southern and eastern Europe in 2007, 2010 and 2017. Hailstorms caused a lot of damage in Germany in 2013, and the winter storms Kyrill (2007) and Xynthia (2010) left a trail of destruction in Western Europe. Social Disruption resulted from extreme snowpack in the northern Alps in 2006 and 2019. Storms Like Dennis: Munich Re Has Collected Information On These Events Since 1974  The company’s NatCatSERVICE database on losses caused by natural extreme events is among the world's largest and contains more than 40,000 entries. A distinction is made between disastrous weather events and geophysical events. The latter include earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis. The weather disasters include winter storms and storm surges, thunderstorms and flash floods, river and lake flooding, landslides, winter hazards, heat waves, droughts, and wildfires.   Damage Statistics: Storms And Floods Dominate 95% of all loss events in the period 1980-2018 are weather-related. Storms make up almost 50% of all events, and flooding almost another third. The so-called 'climatological' events, such as heat waves, droughts, wildfires and frost, account for 16%. The remaining 5% refer to geophysical hazards. A man walks amidst rubble following an earthquake in Pescara del Tronto Winter storms produce losses in excess of one billion dollars practically every year. The most expensive storm disasters since 1990 are winter storms Daria (1990), Lothar (1999), Kyrill (2007), and Xynthia (2010), with overall losses of US$ 7bn, 11.5bn, 9bn, and 6.1bn, respectively. The most expensive weather-related disaster in Europe, affecting large parts of Germany and neighbouring countries, was the 2002 summer flood: two flood events caused a total of US$ 21.5bn (original values, not adjusted for inflation) across the continent. As a result, flood insurance has gained importance. The penetration of flood insurance for private homes in Germany increased countrywide to about 41% in 2018, as compared to around 26% in 2009 and only less than 10% in the year 2002. Recommended:  Climate Change: Cause Of The Next Global Economic Collapse Storms: Europe's Average Annual Losses For 1980-2018 Are Equal To US$ 16.2bn. Casualties: 2003 and 2010 heat waves stand out In all 1,719 events in Europe in which at least one person was killed, storms and floods are leading by a long way. However, 2003 and 2010 stand out as years with extremely high numbers of fatalities in Europe caused by heat waves: 70,000 and 56,000, respectively. These two events dominate the number of weather-related fatalities in Europe since 1980: the number of fatalities by all natural hazards combined in the period 1980-2018 is about 155,000. High Temperature And Storms Also Enhance The Wildfire Danger Wildfires in 2003 caused US$ 1.2bn of damage and killed 70 people in southern Europe. In 2010, the fires around Moscow approached a US$ 2bn loss and claimed 130 lives. More recently, in the summer of 2017, 123 people died in several wildfire episodes, 110 of them in Portugal alone. In 2018, 100 people perished in wildfires in Greece.   Storm And Flood Trends? With respect to damage, the number of severe floods seems to be increasing. With respect to fatalities, the mortality risk related to heat waves has been on the rise. Heat wave frequency, duration, and intensity are increasing, while resistance is decreasing because European societies are ageing. Local inhabitants are evacuated from a flooded village of Sokolniki in Southern Poland, May 20, 2010 Altogether, from 1980 to 2018, 4,890 destructive weather events have been recorded in this database for Europe. 837 Of the events occurred in the 1980s, 1,239 in the 1990s, 1,345 in the first decade of the 21stcentury and 1,469 since 2010. The losses of 525 of these events exceeded US$ 100 m (in original values, not inflation-corrected); 92 were above US$ 1bn, and four even topped US$ 10bn. The number of disastrous weather events in the Munich Re database is growing much faster than the number of geophysical events. Is this due to climate change? For a small part at most. Non-climatic factors such as land-use and land-cover change play a role as well. Nowadays, more people and more valuable assets are exposed to disasters because more people live in unsafe areas, such as floodplains. Extreme Weather Rising? Future Weather Outlook Weather catastrophes constitute a growing burden on national economies and insurance companies, not least because of the costs of precautionary measures. The projections for the future look grim, the authors of this study conclude. The percentage of the European population affected by weather-related disasters may increase by an order of magnitude in a hundred years: from 5% in 1981-2010 to two-thirds by 2100. The record number of heat-related fatalities of 2003 may become the new norm by 2050. Before you go! Recommended:  Climate Change: Hurricane Season With Big And Wet Storms Did you find this an interesting article or do you have a question or remark? Leave a comment below. We try to respond the same day. Like to write your own article about the weather? Click on  'Register'  or push the button 'Write An Article' on the  'HomePage'
Storms After Dennis: Extreme Weather Rising?
Climate Change Scenario: The Environment Or Us?
Nowadays, we are making the world worse. True or not? A study of the downfall of historical civilisations has shown that we face many risks currently. Historian Arnold Toynbee explains in his 12-volume 'A study of History’ that great civilisations take their own lives and not of others. But in fact, that is not the whole truth: other elements help with their self-destruction. Climate Change Scenario: The Roman Empire The Roman Empire, for example, did not only destruct itself, but due to poor leadership, damage to the environment and climate change, Rome was a victim. In 410 Rome was plundered by the Visigoths and in 455 by the Vandals. The Roman Empire contained 4.4 million square kilometres in 390. Five years later it had collapsed to 2 million square kilometres. By 476, the empire's range was practically nil. A repeating failure characterises our deep past. What can the rise and fall of historical civilisations tell us about ours? What are the forces that bring down or slow down a collapse? And do we see comparable patterns today? Recommended:  Coronavirus: Symptoms Flu And Climate Change The Environment Or Us? Lifespan Of Civilisations At first, we need to look at past civilisations and compare their lifespan. This can be difficult. In this study, we look at agriculture, multiple cities, military dominance in its geographical region and a continuous political structure. You can say that all empires are civilisations, but not all cultures are empires. What is civilization? A civilization is generally defined as an advanced state of human society containing highly developed forms of government, culture, industry, and common social norms. London, Great Brittain. The end of an empire.... Almost all past civilisations have dealt with a collapse. This meant a fast and prolonged loss of population, identity and socio-economic complexity. Public services fall apart, and disorder is created when the government loses its monopoly on violence. Some civilisations have recovered (the Chinese and Egyptians, for example), and other collapses were permanent (Easter Island, for example). In Rome, the destruction was revived. What can this tell us concerning the future of modern global civilisation? Is collapse a normal phenomenon for civilisations? {youtube}                                                 Society Collapse: Climate Change, The Environment Or Us?                                                                          Will America Fall Like Rome? Maybe societies of the past and the present are simply complex systems made up of people and technology. Failing is part of life, so collapse can also be a regular phenomenon for civilisations, regardless of their size and stage. We are more technologically advanced now, but that does not mean we can concur every unpredicted challenge. We are not immune to new technology. What is technology? It includes machines (like computers) but also techniques and processes (like the way we produce computer chips). It might seem like all technology is only electronic, but that's just most modern technology. In fact, a hammer and the wheel are two examples of early human technology. Climate Change Scenario: What The Past Tells Us While there is no one acceptable theory for the why of collapses, historians, anthropologists, and others have suggested various explanations, including: Recommended:  Mankind Could Disappear Globally But The Earth Will Survive Society Collapse: Climate Change , when the climate's stability changes, the results can be catastrophic, resulting in crop failures, famine and desertification Environmental degradation . Collapse can occur when societies exceed the carrying capacity of their environment. This ecological collapse theory points to over-deforestation, water pollution, soil degradation and the loss of biodiversity as causes of precipitation. Oil pollution, China Society Collapse: Inequality and Oligarchy. Wealth and political disparity can be central drivers of social disruption, as well as aristocracy and centralisation of power among leaders. This not only causes social suffering but hampers a society's ability to respond to ecological, social and economic problems. For example, the population grows; this exceeds the demand for labour. Workers become cheaper; society becomes top-heavy. This inequality undermines collective solidarity, and political unrest follows. What is government oligarchy? Oligarchy (from Greek ὀλιγαρχία (oligarkhía); meaning 'few', and ἄρχω (arkho), meaning 'to rule or to command') is a form of power structure in which power rests with a small number of people. Protests in Paris Society Collapse: Complexity.  Joseph Tainter, a collapse expert and historian, says that societies eventually collapse under the weight of their own accumulated complexity and bureaucracy. Another indicator of increasing complexity is called Energy Return on Investment (EROI). This refers to the proportion between the amount of energy produced by raw material and the energy needed to obtain it. Like complexity, EROI seems to have a point at which efficiency decreases. Society Collapse: External Shocks.  In other words, the 'four horsemen': war, natural disasters, starvation and plagues. The Aztec Empire, for example, was destroyed by Spanish invaders. Most of the early agricultural states were volatile due to deadly epidemics. The concentration of people and livestock in walled colonies with poor hygiene made disease outbreaks inevitable and disastrous. Disasters sometimes went hand in hand, as was the case with the Spanish introduction of salmonella into America. Recommended:  Climate Change: Locust Second Wave And A Lockdown Society Collapse: Randomness & Bad Luck.  A statistical analysis of the empires suggests that the collapse is arbitrary and independent of age. Evolutionary biologist and data scientist Indre Zliobaite and her colleagues have observed a parallel pattern in the evolution of species. A simplified explanation for this apparent arbitrariness is the 'Red Queen Effect': if species are continually struggling to survive in a changing environment with numerous competitors, extinction is a consistent possibility. What is the Red Queen effect in evolution? The “Red Queen” hypothesis in evolution is related to the coevolution of species. It states that species must continuously adapt and evolve to pass on genes to the next generation and also to keep from going extinct when other species within a symbiotic relationship are evolving. The Environment Or Us?: Indicators Recommended:  Is Neoliberalism Hurting Our Climate And The Paris Accord? Despite the overload of books and articles, we have no definitive explanation for the collapse of civilisations. What we do know is this: the factors mentioned above can all contribute. Stressors can overrun societal coping capacity, which can cause collapse. To examine a different kind of indicators of danger to see whether collapsing is rising or falling, we show you four possible metrics. These are measured over the past few decades: Temperature is a clear indicator of climate change Inequality is more complicated to calculate. The specific measurement of the Gini index suggests that inequality has reduced slightly worldwide (although it is increasing within countries). But the Gini index can be deceptive because it only measures relative changes in income The rich are becoming richer, which in the past has led to extra pressure on society. Studies show that the EROI for fossil fuels has declined steadily over time as the easiest to reach and most precious reserves are exhausted. Unfortunately, most of the renewable substitutes, such as solar energy, have a significantly lower EROI, mainly because of their energy density and the rare earth metals and production needed to produce them. Climate Change Scenario: Measures Of Resilience The only positive thing is that collapses are not the entire picture. Social elasticity can slow down or prevent the collapse. The economic diversity is more significant than ever. We can cope more than ever, and we have more knowledge than ever. Especially, population groups with more experience may be better able to respond to crises when they occur. Also, the innovation of civilisation is rising. If we look at the collapse and elasticity indicators, we cannot be complacent. If we keep on innovate and diversify like this, we can be optimistic. Nevertheless, the world is deteriorating in areas that have contributed to the collapse of earlier societies. The climate is changing, the difference between rich and poor is growing, the world is becoming more and more complex, and our environmental demands exceed the carrying capacity of the planet. What does elasticity mean? Elasticity is a measure of a variable's sensitivity to a change in another variable. In business and economics, elasticity refers the degree to which individuals, consumers or producers change their demand or the amount supplied in response to price or income changes. Environment Or Us?: We May Fall Down Our weapons are more massive than it used to be (now: nuclear weapons and biological agents instead of arrows and swords). New tools of violence, such as deadly autonomous weapons, may be available in the near future. People are becoming exceptionally specialised and less involved in the manufacture of food and essential goods. Recommended:  Climate Change: Cause Of The Next Global Economic Collapse And a changing climate can destroy our ability to return to simple farming practices. With the expansion of nuclear weapons, we may already have reached the point of civilized 'terminal speed'. Any collapse threatens to be permanent. A nuclear war can lead to an actual risk: either the disappearance of our species or a permanent slingshot, back to the Stone Age.  Climate change is a different kind of threat than what the Maya's dealt with. Now, they are global, quicker, more dangerous and human-driven. A collapse of our civilisation is not unavoidable. History indicates that it is possible, we have the rare advantage of being able to learn from the pieces of the wreckage of societies' past. We know what we have to do, what needs to be done. We need to reduce the emissions, inequalities must become equal, and we have to care more about the environment. Innovation should be stimulated, and we need more diversity in economics. The policy suggestions are there; only the political will is missing. We can invest in recovering better. There are already well-developed ideas to improve the capacity of food and knowledge systems to recover after a disaster. We have to listen to the past, to improve ourselves. Do not walk blindly into the future that will destroy us. Before you go! Recommended:  Economic Growth Is Dead: Welcome To The Circular Economy Did you find this an interesting article or do you have a question or remark? Leave a comment below. We try to respond the same day. Like to write your own article about (y)our society?  What you gain?  Extra:  Global exposure, a valuable backlink! Click on  'Register'  or push the button 'Write An Article' on the  'HomePage'
Nowadays, we are making the world worse. True or not? A study of the downfall of historical civilisations has shown that we face many risks currently. Historian Arnold Toynbee explains in his 12-volume 'A study of History’ that great civilisations take their own lives and not of others. But in fact, that is not the whole truth: other elements help with their self-destruction. Climate Change Scenario: The Roman Empire The Roman Empire, for example, did not only destruct itself, but due to poor leadership, damage to the environment and climate change, Rome was a victim. In 410 Rome was plundered by the Visigoths and in 455 by the Vandals. The Roman Empire contained 4.4 million square kilometres in 390. Five years later it had collapsed to 2 million square kilometres. By 476, the empire's range was practically nil. A repeating failure characterises our deep past. What can the rise and fall of historical civilisations tell us about ours? What are the forces that bring down or slow down a collapse? And do we see comparable patterns today? Recommended:  Coronavirus: Symptoms Flu And Climate Change The Environment Or Us? Lifespan Of Civilisations At first, we need to look at past civilisations and compare their lifespan. This can be difficult. In this study, we look at agriculture, multiple cities, military dominance in its geographical region and a continuous political structure. You can say that all empires are civilisations, but not all cultures are empires. What is civilization? A civilization is generally defined as an advanced state of human society containing highly developed forms of government, culture, industry, and common social norms. London, Great Brittain. The end of an empire.... Almost all past civilisations have dealt with a collapse. This meant a fast and prolonged loss of population, identity and socio-economic complexity. Public services fall apart, and disorder is created when the government loses its monopoly on violence. Some civilisations have recovered (the Chinese and Egyptians, for example), and other collapses were permanent (Easter Island, for example). In Rome, the destruction was revived. What can this tell us concerning the future of modern global civilisation? Is collapse a normal phenomenon for civilisations? {youtube}                                                 Society Collapse: Climate Change, The Environment Or Us?                                                                          Will America Fall Like Rome? Maybe societies of the past and the present are simply complex systems made up of people and technology. Failing is part of life, so collapse can also be a regular phenomenon for civilisations, regardless of their size and stage. We are more technologically advanced now, but that does not mean we can concur every unpredicted challenge. We are not immune to new technology. What is technology? It includes machines (like computers) but also techniques and processes (like the way we produce computer chips). It might seem like all technology is only electronic, but that's just most modern technology. In fact, a hammer and the wheel are two examples of early human technology. Climate Change Scenario: What The Past Tells Us While there is no one acceptable theory for the why of collapses, historians, anthropologists, and others have suggested various explanations, including: Recommended:  Mankind Could Disappear Globally But The Earth Will Survive Society Collapse: Climate Change , when the climate's stability changes, the results can be catastrophic, resulting in crop failures, famine and desertification Environmental degradation . Collapse can occur when societies exceed the carrying capacity of their environment. This ecological collapse theory points to over-deforestation, water pollution, soil degradation and the loss of biodiversity as causes of precipitation. Oil pollution, China Society Collapse: Inequality and Oligarchy. Wealth and political disparity can be central drivers of social disruption, as well as aristocracy and centralisation of power among leaders. This not only causes social suffering but hampers a society's ability to respond to ecological, social and economic problems. For example, the population grows; this exceeds the demand for labour. Workers become cheaper; society becomes top-heavy. This inequality undermines collective solidarity, and political unrest follows. What is government oligarchy? Oligarchy (from Greek ὀλιγαρχία (oligarkhía); meaning 'few', and ἄρχω (arkho), meaning 'to rule or to command') is a form of power structure in which power rests with a small number of people. Protests in Paris Society Collapse: Complexity.  Joseph Tainter, a collapse expert and historian, says that societies eventually collapse under the weight of their own accumulated complexity and bureaucracy. Another indicator of increasing complexity is called Energy Return on Investment (EROI). This refers to the proportion between the amount of energy produced by raw material and the energy needed to obtain it. Like complexity, EROI seems to have a point at which efficiency decreases. Society Collapse: External Shocks.  In other words, the 'four horsemen': war, natural disasters, starvation and plagues. The Aztec Empire, for example, was destroyed by Spanish invaders. Most of the early agricultural states were volatile due to deadly epidemics. The concentration of people and livestock in walled colonies with poor hygiene made disease outbreaks inevitable and disastrous. Disasters sometimes went hand in hand, as was the case with the Spanish introduction of salmonella into America. Recommended:  Climate Change: Locust Second Wave And A Lockdown Society Collapse: Randomness & Bad Luck.  A statistical analysis of the empires suggests that the collapse is arbitrary and independent of age. Evolutionary biologist and data scientist Indre Zliobaite and her colleagues have observed a parallel pattern in the evolution of species. A simplified explanation for this apparent arbitrariness is the 'Red Queen Effect': if species are continually struggling to survive in a changing environment with numerous competitors, extinction is a consistent possibility. What is the Red Queen effect in evolution? The “Red Queen” hypothesis in evolution is related to the coevolution of species. It states that species must continuously adapt and evolve to pass on genes to the next generation and also to keep from going extinct when other species within a symbiotic relationship are evolving. The Environment Or Us?: Indicators Recommended:  Is Neoliberalism Hurting Our Climate And The Paris Accord? Despite the overload of books and articles, we have no definitive explanation for the collapse of civilisations. What we do know is this: the factors mentioned above can all contribute. Stressors can overrun societal coping capacity, which can cause collapse. To examine a different kind of indicators of danger to see whether collapsing is rising or falling, we show you four possible metrics. These are measured over the past few decades: Temperature is a clear indicator of climate change Inequality is more complicated to calculate. The specific measurement of the Gini index suggests that inequality has reduced slightly worldwide (although it is increasing within countries). But the Gini index can be deceptive because it only measures relative changes in income The rich are becoming richer, which in the past has led to extra pressure on society. Studies show that the EROI for fossil fuels has declined steadily over time as the easiest to reach and most precious reserves are exhausted. Unfortunately, most of the renewable substitutes, such as solar energy, have a significantly lower EROI, mainly because of their energy density and the rare earth metals and production needed to produce them. Climate Change Scenario: Measures Of Resilience The only positive thing is that collapses are not the entire picture. Social elasticity can slow down or prevent the collapse. The economic diversity is more significant than ever. We can cope more than ever, and we have more knowledge than ever. Especially, population groups with more experience may be better able to respond to crises when they occur. Also, the innovation of civilisation is rising. If we look at the collapse and elasticity indicators, we cannot be complacent. If we keep on innovate and diversify like this, we can be optimistic. Nevertheless, the world is deteriorating in areas that have contributed to the collapse of earlier societies. The climate is changing, the difference between rich and poor is growing, the world is becoming more and more complex, and our environmental demands exceed the carrying capacity of the planet. What does elasticity mean? Elasticity is a measure of a variable's sensitivity to a change in another variable. In business and economics, elasticity refers the degree to which individuals, consumers or producers change their demand or the amount supplied in response to price or income changes. Environment Or Us?: We May Fall Down Our weapons are more massive than it used to be (now: nuclear weapons and biological agents instead of arrows and swords). New tools of violence, such as deadly autonomous weapons, may be available in the near future. People are becoming exceptionally specialised and less involved in the manufacture of food and essential goods. Recommended:  Climate Change: Cause Of The Next Global Economic Collapse And a changing climate can destroy our ability to return to simple farming practices. With the expansion of nuclear weapons, we may already have reached the point of civilized 'terminal speed'. Any collapse threatens to be permanent. A nuclear war can lead to an actual risk: either the disappearance of our species or a permanent slingshot, back to the Stone Age.  Climate change is a different kind of threat than what the Maya's dealt with. Now, they are global, quicker, more dangerous and human-driven. A collapse of our civilisation is not unavoidable. History indicates that it is possible, we have the rare advantage of being able to learn from the pieces of the wreckage of societies' past. We know what we have to do, what needs to be done. We need to reduce the emissions, inequalities must become equal, and we have to care more about the environment. Innovation should be stimulated, and we need more diversity in economics. The policy suggestions are there; only the political will is missing. We can invest in recovering better. There are already well-developed ideas to improve the capacity of food and knowledge systems to recover after a disaster. We have to listen to the past, to improve ourselves. Do not walk blindly into the future that will destroy us. Before you go! Recommended:  Economic Growth Is Dead: Welcome To The Circular Economy Did you find this an interesting article or do you have a question or remark? Leave a comment below. We try to respond the same day. Like to write your own article about (y)our society?  What you gain?  Extra:  Global exposure, a valuable backlink! Click on  'Register'  or push the button 'Write An Article' on the  'HomePage'
Climate Change Scenario: The Environment Or Us?
Climate Change Scenario: The Environment Or Us?
Climate

Climate change! Currently, the most discussed topic in the world. Climate change occurs when changes in Earth's climate system result in new weather patterns that last for at least a few decades, and maybe for millions of years. Climate change can also result from ‘external forcing’ and include changes in solar output and volcanism.

Human activities can also influence our climate. Debates, posts and answers on (social) platforms about the role of humanity in the climate change process regularly lead to heated discussions

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