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Breaking News global warming by co2 or cooling by a grand solar minimum | Breaking News

Global Warming By CO2 Or Cooling By A Grand Solar Minimum

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by: Cap Allon
global warming by co2 or cooling by a grand solar minimum | Breaking News

An approaching Grand Solar Minimum is gaining ever more support. Even NASA appears to be on-board, with their recent SC25 (solar cycle every 11 years) prediction. NASA’s forecast for the next solar cycle (25) reveals it will be the weakest of the last 200 years. The maximum of this next cycle measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one. The agency’s results show that the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025.

Global Warming By CO2 Or Cooling By A Grand Solar Minimum. Three Sources Of Sun Observations

The new research was led by Irina Kitiashvili, a researcher with the Bay Area Environmental Research Institute at NASA’s Ames Research Centre, in California’s Silicon Valley. It combined observations from two NASA space missions the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and the Solar Dynamics Observatory with data collected since 1976 from the ground-based National Solar Observatory.
Kitiashvili’s method differs from other prediction tools in terms of the raw material for its forecast. Previously, researchers used the number of sunspots to represent indirectly the activity of the solar magnetic field. The new approach takes advantage of direct observations of magnetic fields emerging on the surface of the Sun data which has only existed for the last four solar cycles.

400 years of sunspot observations
According to the Actuaries Institute, in a solar minimum, when solar flares hit Earth, they have the ability to temporarily significantly change climatic conditions, earthquake and volcanic risks

Mathematically combining the data from the three sources of Sun observations with the estimates of its interior activity generated a forecast designed to be more reliable than using any of those sources alone. In 2008 the researchers used this method to make their prediction, which was then put to the test as the current solar cycle unfolded over the last decade. It has performed well, with the forecast strength and timing of the solar maximum aligning closely with reality.

Grand Solar Minimum Cooling And The Implications For The Earth And Humanity

Recommended: Climate Change Natural Man Made: Causes And Facts)

NASA is effectively forecasting a return to the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) but gives no mention of the brutal cold, crop loss, famine, war and powerful Volcanic eruptions associated with it. Like the deeper Maunder and Spörer Minimums preceding it, the Dalton brought on a period of lower-than-average global temperatures. The Oberlach Station in Germany, for example, experienced a 2C decline over 20 years, which devastated the country’s food production.


                                            Global Warming By CO2 Or Cooling By A Grand Solar Minimum
                                                             ScienceCasts: Solar Minimum is Coming

The Year Without a Summer also occurred during the Dalton Minimum, in 1816. It was caused by a combination of already low temperatures plus the aftereffects of the second largest volcanic eruption in 2000 years: Mount Tambora’s VEI 7 on April 10, 1815.

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Recommended: Solar Farms In Space: Next Step In Renewable Energy

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Breaking News, as the world changes…

In our world, WhatsOrb refuses to turn away from the changes in our society and environment which succeeds each other at a rapid pace.

For WhatsOrb, publishing on the environment is a priority. We give reporting on climate, nature, waste, lifestyle and sustainable solutions the prominence it deserves.

At this turbulent time for ‘all’ species and our planet, we are determined to inform readers about threats, consequences and solutions based on facts, not on political prejudice or business interests.

WhatsOrb Breaking News will be published as soon as urgent events from around the world and startling sustainable innovations reach us.

If there is anything we should know and publish about, please send a note to: [email protected] or write your own story on: www.whatsorb.comthe only news site which gives you a ‘sustainable voice!’

Dave Burton - 2 WEEKS AGO
Post Reported Report Post
Your Comment is Under Moderation
{2nd try; my first attempt has disappeared...}

I don’t think anyone knows what the upcoming solar cycles will be like. We might get a Dalton-sized minimum, or Maunder-sized, or just a short blip.

‍‍ ‍‍‍‍‍‍ ‍‍ "The most elementary and valuable statement in science, the beginning of wisdom, is, 'I do not know.'" - Jack B. Sowards (writer), as the character Lt Cdr Data (Brent Spinner), TNG S2E2

We also don’t know how much cooling effect the downturn in solar activity will have, even if it turns out to be Maunder-sized (long & deep). Hopefully, the warming effect of our current higher CO2 levels will be at least sufficient to negate the cooling effect of the solar minimum; my guess is that it will be.

I smiled when I read this sentence: “NASA’s forecast for the next solar cycle (25) reveals it will be the weakest of the last 200 years.” The word “reveals” suggests far too much confidence in that prediction.

The pitfalls of modeling things that are poorly understood, with models that cannot be continually tested and refined, are illustrated by NASA’s previous attempt to predict an upcoming solar cycle. Here's NASA in Dec. 2006, trying to predict solar activity just four years out. They predicted, on the basis of “a sophisticated computer model of the sun’s inner dynamo," a very intense Solar Cycle 24, peaking in 2010 or 2011:

NASA: Scientists Predict Big Solar Cycle

Their article began: "Solar cycle 24, due to peak in 2010 or 2011 'looks like its going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago...'"

NASA’s prediction was, of course, spectacularly wrong, in every detail.

Instead of "one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began" we got an extraordinarily weak Solar Cycle 24.

Instead of peaking in about four years, in 2010 or 2011, more than seven years elapsed before the peak finally came, in 2014.

Impressively, their "sophisticated computer model" did much worse than simple coin tosses would have done.

NASA's sophisticated computer model of the Sun was as wrong in 2006 as their sophisticated computer model of the Earth's climate was in 1988.
Reply
Dave Burton - 2 WEEKS AGO
Post Reported Report Post
Your Comment is Under Moderation
I don’t think anyone knows what the upcoming solar cycles will be like. We might get a Dalton-sized minimum, or Maunder-sized, or just a short blip.

‍‍ ‍‍‍‍‍‍ ‍‍ "The most elementary and valuable statement in science, the beginning of wisdom, is, 'I do not know.'" - Jack B. Sowards (writer), as the character Lt Cdr Data (Brent Spinner), TNG S2E2


We also don’t know how much cooling effect the downturn in solar activity will have, even if it turns out to be Maunder-sized (long & deep). Hopefully, the warming effect of our current higher CO2 levels will be at least sufficient to negate the cooling effect of the solar minimum; my guess is that it will be.

I smiled when I read this sentence: “NASA’s forecast for the next solar cycle (25) reveals it will be the weakest of the last 200 years.” The word “reveals” suggests far too much confidence in that prediction.

The pitfalls of modeling things that are poorly understood, with models that cannot be continually tested and refined, are illustrated by NASA’s previous attempt to predict an upcoming solar cycle. Here's NASA in Dec. 2006, trying to predict solar activity just four years out. They predicted, on the basis of “a sophisticated computer model of the sun’s inner dynamo," a very intense Solar Cycle 24, peaking in 2010 or 2011:
NASA: Scientists Predict Big Solar Cycle

Their article began: "Solar cycle 24, due to peak in 2010 or 2011 'looks like its going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago...'"

NASA’s prediction was, of course, spectacularly wrong, in every detail.

Instead of "one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began" we got an extraordinarily weak Solar Cycle 24.

Instead of peaking in about four years, in 2010 or 2011, more than seven years elapsed before the peak finally came, in 2014.

Impressively, their "sophisticated computer model" did much worse than simple coin tosses would have done.

NASA's sophisticated computer model of the Sun was as wrong in 2006 as their sophisticated computer model of the Earth's climate was in 1988.
Reply
Carl - 2 WEEKS AGO
Post Reported Report Post
Your Comment is Under Moderation
Quite interesting. Cannot wait to see what the weather is in the 20s.
Reply
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Breaking News, as the world changes…

In our world, WhatsOrb refuses to turn away from the changes in our society and environment which succeeds each other at a rapid pace.

For WhatsOrb, publishing on the environment is a priority. We give reporting on climate, nature, waste, lifestyle and sustainable solutions the prominence it deserves.

At this turbulent time for ‘all’ species and our planet, we are determined to inform readers about threats, consequences and solutions based on facts, not on political prejudice or business interests.

WhatsOrb Breaking News will be published as soon as urgent events from around the world and startling sustainable innovations reach us.

If there is anything we should know and publish about, please send a note to: [email protected] or write your own story on: www.whatsorb.comthe only news site which gives you a ‘sustainable voice!’

Global Warming By CO2 Or Cooling By A Grand Solar Minimum

An approaching Grand Solar Minimum is gaining ever more support. Even NASA appears to be on-board, with their recent SC25 (solar cycle every 11 years) prediction. NASA’s forecast for the next solar cycle (25) reveals it will be the weakest of the last 200 years. The maximum of this next cycle measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one. The agency’s results show that the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025. Global Warming By CO2 Or Cooling By A Grand Solar Minimum. Three Sources Of Sun Observations The new research was led by Irina Kitiashvili, a researcher with the Bay Area Environmental Research Institute at NASA’s Ames Research Centre, in California’s Silicon Valley. It combined observations from two NASA space missions the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and the Solar Dynamics Observatory with data collected since 1976 from the ground-based National Solar Observatory. Kitiashvili’s method differs from other prediction tools in terms of the raw material for its forecast. Previously, researchers used the number of sunspots to represent indirectly the activity of the solar magnetic field. The new approach takes advantage of direct observations of magnetic fields emerging on the surface of the Sun data which has only existed for the last four solar cycles. According to the Actuaries Institute, in a solar minimum, when solar flares hit Earth, they have the ability to temporarily significantly change climatic conditions, earthquake and volcanic risks Mathematically combining the data from the three sources of Sun observations with the estimates of its interior activity generated a forecast designed to be more reliable than using any of those sources alone. In 2008 the researchers used this method to make their prediction, which was then put to the test as the current solar cycle unfolded over the last decade. It has performed well , with the forecast strength and timing of the solar maximum aligning closely with reality. Grand Solar Minimum Cooling And The Implications For The Earth And Humanity Recommended:  Climate Change Natural Man Made: Causes And Facts ) NASA is effectively forecasting a return to the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) but gives no mention of the brutal cold, crop loss, famine, war and powerful Volcanic eruptions associated with it. Like the deeper Maunder and Spörer Minimums preceding it, the Dalton brought on a period of lower-than-average global temperatures. The Oberlach Station in Germany, for example, experienced a 2C decline over 20 years, which devastated the country’s food production. {youtube}                                             Global Warming By CO2 Or Cooling By A Grand Solar Minimum                                                              ScienceCasts: Solar Minimum is Coming The Year Without a Summer also occurred during the Dalton Minimum, in 1816. It was caused by a combination of already low temperatures plus the aftereffects of the second largest volcanic eruption in 2000 years: Mount Tambora’s VEI 7 on April 10, 1815. Before you go! Recommended:  Solar Farms In Space: Next Step In Renewable Energy Did you find this an interesting article or do you have a question or remark? Leave a comment below. We try to respond the same day. Like to write your own article about sustainability? Click on  'Register'  or push the button 'Write An Article' on the  'HomePage'
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