All over the world conflict situations arise between countries because people are confronted with decreasing natural resources like water as a result of climate change. In the Middle East and in Africa there are several examples of countries where climate change is seen as the cause of violent conflicts. But there is also a major conflict in Asia due to the lack of water resources - which can even involve nuclear weapons. India and Pakistan are directly opposite each other. The problem? Water.
The Indus and its tributaries in the Indus Waters Treaty
Pakistan and India share a number of important waters, the Indus and its tributaries - a crucial lifeline for both countries. The Indus River, along with its tributaries, is more than 2880 kilometres long. The river flows from north to south India and then ends up in Pakistan.
In September 1960, the countries signed the Indus Waters Treaty. This treaty laid down how to deal with waters that start in India but are crucial for Pakistan. Please note: when the signatures were placed under the Indus Waters Treaty, the countries were still relatively peaceful with each other. The World Bank mediated this Indus Waters Treaty, where the six major rivers of the Indus basin were divided between India and Pakistan. The Baes, the Sutlej and the Ravi - the easternmost rivers - were given to India, and the western rivers, the Chenab, the Jhelum and the Indus, are under the control of Pakistan. That seems like a good distribution, but there is a big problem: the waters to which Pakistan is entitled largely flow through Kashmir, which is governed by India and widely controversial.
Will the Indus Waters Treaty survive the dispute over the Kashmir region?
The dispute over the Kashmir region has been an enormous conflict between India and Pakistan for more than six decades. After the division of the British Indies in 1947, both India and Pakistan claim the former princely state of Kashmir and Jammu. China is a third party in this struggle. The conflict escalated in three wars and several other armed conflicts. Even after these wars and other hostilities, the Indus Water Treaty remained standing, but how long will it take?
Pakistan has accused India of throttling its water supply and violating the IWT by constructing dams over the rivers flowing into Pakistan from Kashmir. “Any country with nuclear weapons, if they’re backed into a corner because they have no water — that’s really dangerous,” said Jeff Nesbit, author and executive director of non-profit climate communication organisation Climate Nexus.
The Indus is crucial for surviving
For Pakistan, the Indus river and its tributaries are crucial waters for surviving. Most of the country depends on the waters as an essential source of freshwater - it also is necessary for ninety percent of the agricultural industry in Pakistan. Without this water, the industry will fall apart. Sherry Rehman, Parliamentary Leader of the left-wing opposition Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) in the Senate tells that "water security has become a regional security threat.” She says: “We are now facing challenges brought about by climate change which were not a primary focus during the negotiations for the Indus Water Treaty.”
A 2018 report from the International Monetary Fund ranked Pakistan third among countries facing severe water shortages. When the rapidly melting glaciers in the Himalayas, which feed the Indus waters, eventually disappear as predicted, the dwindling rivers will be slashed even further.
The Indus Waters Treaty almost broke down in September 2016. India accused Pakistani soldiers of a violent attack in Kashmir. The country threatened with the unilateral denunciation of the treaty. “Had they done that, it would have triggered a water war, it would have triggered an actual war. “Never mind a nuclear strike or a military strike, if they were to actually terminate the Indus Water Treaty, that’s much more dangerous to Pakistan’s survival, because they would have no way to grow food. And then they would be relying on food imports at a time when their population is exploding. So that particular incident was really dangerous.” Nesbit states that water issues between India and Pakistan have the potential to become the most deadly climate change-attributed conflict in the world.
Why has India not yet lifted the Indus Waters Treaty? That is all because of the third party in this conflict: China. China can do exactly the same with India if they block the water flows to Pakistan. Because of China, the country can face exactly the same fate. That’s why China’s watching the India-Pakistan water wars quite closely, to see the decisions that India makes.
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