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Climate climate change by risky business  we are screwed  | Upload General

Climate Change By Risky Business: We Are Screwed!

by: Sharai Hoekema
climate change by risky business  we are screwed  | Upload

The last thing that you may want to hear right now, is that we are royally screwed. Although those of us with a more fatalistic disposition may already find this thought racing through our minds pretty often lately, we are generally still clinging on to some kind of false hope. A pretense that everything is going to be OK again, that things are not as bad as they may seem.

Risky Business: JP Morgan Chase Fires Back

Although it is understandable that we are clinging onto whatever positives - or not so negatives - that we may be looking at, perhaps it would help our planet if our species would not suffer from the urge to try and be so irrevocably glass-half-full all the time.


                                            Leaked JPMorgan Report: 'Cannot Rule Out' Human Extinction

Two economists working for JP Morgan Chase surely understood this, when they decided to lash out at conventional climate change beliefs. Funny, as this company is probably one of the world’s leading financiers of fossil fuel projects. And they can no longer feign innocence, as the internal report those two wrote was leaked and now makes a bold claim: the world is seriously underestimating how climate change will affect us.

people, protest, banners, JP Morgan Chase
Recommended: Climate Change: China Floods The Arctic On Fire

In a 22-page essay by UK economists David Mackie and Jessica Murray, aptly titled ‘Risky Business: the Climate and the Macroeconomy’, they painted a pretty gloom picture of our future. As it turns out, the consequences of climate change for our economy as a whole can be pretty drastic. The pair even goes so far as stating that, “We cannot rule out catastrophic outcomes where human life as we know it is threatened.”

JP Morgan Chase was quick to retract their claim, saying that it was “wholly independent from the company as a whole” as soon as they realized it had been leaked after it was sent to the bank’s clients. But this does not change the message within, that is looking at the impact of climate change on GDP - and reviews existing literature on this topic. In the end, they conclude that “these estimates of the income and wealth effects of unmitigated climate change are far too small.” 

Climate Impact Will Not Be Linear

These estimates include research by Richard Told, who claims that warming of up to 2.5 degrees Celsius might even have a positive impact on GDP; and by Mark Lynas, who said that a 6 degrees Celsius rise in temperature could only impact GDP by some 7%. 

Those are at the low end of the spectrum, with other studies putting the impact at up to a 23% hit to the GDP by the year 2100. Yet those numbers are still way too optimistic, or so Mackie and Murray claim. They refute the approach that many scientists before them took to calculate the impact, that largely focuses on the use of climate economy models, in which a linear model is utilized. 

wheelchairs
Recommended: 
Oceans Suffocated: The World According To WhatsOrb

This means that climate impacts will be linear, allowing for high discount rates as investments in the short-term will then be more expensive than investments at a later time - as the same amount of money will be less meaningful in the future. Effectively, this puts the burden of action on later generations, an idea that is widely criticized. 

As the authors of this paper claim, there is no such thing as a linear evolvement when it comes to global warming. Chances are that there will be much more abrupt effects, such as rapid ice-sheet disintegration. Additionally, the economic effects are largely benchmarked based on the historical data of the last few decades, where we already saw a rise in temperature and precipitation. Unfortunately, there was not enough variability in these sets to even pretend any future projects would be accurate.

What all of this means? A gross underestimation of the financial impact of climate change. Courtesy of JP Morgan Chase, one of the multinationals most to blame for the whole phenomenon. You’re welcome.

Climate Change: Carbon Pricing Is Not Enough

Carbon pricing is our current go-to for trying to save up for any climate-related costs. JP Morgan Chase is one of the biggest supporters of a carbon-tax plan that is based on the models that are now so heavily criticized in a paper from the hand of their own employees. This plan includes a tax of $40 per ton of carbon dioxide. This is grossly inadequate, as many economists were quick to point out. Even analysts of ExxonMobil, the initiator of this tax, claimed that at least $75 per ton would be necessary - for stabilizing our emissions back in 1991 (!). Go figure how much that ought to be today.

waves, houses
Recommended: Our Focus On CO2 Alone: Other Climate Culprits

Carbon pricing in and of itself is definitely not bad. It is a decent safeguard for any policies that we will ultimately need to remedy the worst consequences of global warming. We just need to listen to financial economists instead of climate economists if we want to settle on an adequate price. Some leading experts have already stated that, although they would not quote a number, it could not “in good conscience get lower than $125”.

The actual pricing is difficult and not even the point. As one expert said, "it could be $200 per ton or $400 per ton. There are so many uncertainties that presenting one number is just insane. It’s uncomfortable for an economist to say, but the grand conclusion is a bit of humility. We can’t tell you about the grand solution. Everything we know about how to price a ton of carbon dioxide tells us that it seems to be much, much worse than the standard climate economy models tell us.

Translation? We will be royally screwed if we continue to underestimate the economical costs associated with global warming. Passing it on to future generations on some lewd depreciation model just is not fair - nor is it realistic. We should not just find ways of tempering global warming, we also ought to find better ways of buying ourselves proper insurance for it.

Before you go!

Recommended: Global Cooling Or Warming: Will It Kill Us?

Did you find this an interesting article, or do you have a question or remark? Leave a comment below.
We try to respond the same day.

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Send your writing & scribble with a photo to [email protected], and we will write an interesting article based on your input.

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Climate Change By Risky Business: We Are Screwed!

The last thing that you may want to hear right now, is that we are royally screwed. Although those of us with a more fatalistic disposition may already find this thought racing through our minds pretty often lately, we are generally still clinging on to some kind of false hope. A pretense that everything is going to be OK again, that things are not as bad as they may seem. Risky Business: JP Morgan Chase Fires Back Although it is understandable that we are clinging onto whatever positives - or not so negatives - that we may be looking at, perhaps it would help our planet if our species would not suffer from the urge to try and be so irrevocably glass-half-full all the time. {youtube}                                             Leaked JPMorgan Report: 'Cannot Rule Out' Human Extinction Two economists working for JP Morgan Chase surely understood this, when they decided to lash out at conventional climate change beliefs. Funny, as this company is probably one of the world’s leading financiers of fossil fuel projects. And they can no longer feign innocence, as the internal report those two wrote was leaked and now makes a bold claim: the world is seriously underestimating how climate change will affect us. Recommended:  Climate Change: China Floods The Arctic On Fire In a 22-page essay by UK economists David Mackie and Jessica Murray, aptly titled ‘Risky Business: the Climate and the Macroeconomy’, they painted a pretty gloom picture of our future. As it turns out, the consequences of climate change for our economy as a whole can be pretty drastic. The pair even goes so far as stating that, “ We cannot rule out catastrophic outcomes where human life as we know it is threatened .” JP Morgan Chase was quick to retract their claim, saying that it was “wholly independent from the company as a whole” as soon as they realized it had been leaked after it was sent to the bank’s clients. But this does not change the message within, that is looking at the impact of climate change on GDP - and reviews existing literature on this topic. In the end, they conclude that “ these estimates of the income and wealth effects of unmitigated climate change are far too small .”   Climate Impact Will Not Be Linear These estimates include research by Richard Told, who claims that warming of up to 2.5 degrees Celsius might even have a positive impact on GDP; and by Mark Lynas, who said that a 6 degrees Celsius rise in temperature could only impact GDP by some 7%.   Those are at the low end of the spectrum, with other studies putting the impact at up to a 23% hit to the GDP by the year 2100. Yet those numbers are still way too optimistic, or so Mackie and Murray claim. They refute the approach that many scientists before them took to calculate the impact, that largely focuses on the use of climate economy models, in which a linear model is utilized.   Recommended:  Oceans Suffocated: The World According To WhatsOrb This means that climate impacts will be linear, allowing for high discount rates as investments in the short-term will then be more expensive than investments at a later time - as the same amount of money will be less meaningful in the future. Effectively, this puts the burden of action on later generations, an idea that is widely criticized.   As the authors of this paper claim, there is no such thing as a linear evolvement when it comes to global warming. Chances are that there will be much more abrupt effects, such as rapid ice-sheet disintegration. Additionally, the economic effects are largely benchmarked based on the historical data of the last few decades, where we already saw a rise in temperature and precipitation. Unfortunately, there was not enough variability in these sets to even pretend any future projects would be accurate. What all of this means? A gross underestimation of the financial impact of climate change. Courtesy of JP Morgan Chase, one of the multinationals most to blame for the whole phenomenon. You’re welcome. Climate Change: Carbon Pricing Is Not Enough Carbon pricing is our current go-to for trying to save up for any climate-related costs. JP Morgan Chase is one of the biggest supporters of a carbon-tax plan that is based on the models that are now so heavily criticized in a paper from the hand of their own employees. This plan includes a tax of $40 per ton of carbon dioxide. This is grossly inadequate, as many economists were quick to point out. Even analysts of ExxonMobil, the initiator of this tax, claimed that at least $75 per ton would be necessary - for stabilizing our emissions back in 1991 (!). Go figure how much that ought to be today. Recommended:  Our Focus On CO2 Alone: Other Climate Culprits Carbon pricing in and of itself is definitely not bad. It is a decent safeguard for any policies that we will ultimately need to remedy the worst consequences of global warming. We just need to listen to financial economists instead of climate economists if we want to settle on an adequate price. Some leading experts have already stated that, although they would not quote a number, it could not “ in good conscience get lower than $125 ”. The actual pricing is difficult and not even the point. As one expert said, " it could be $200 per ton or $400 per ton. There are so many uncertainties that presenting one number is just insane. It’s uncomfortable for an economist to say, but the grand conclusion is a bit of humility. We can’t tell you about the grand solution. Everything we know about how to price a ton of carbon dioxide tells us that it seems to be much, much worse than the standard climate economy models tell us. ” Translation? We will be royally screwed if we continue to underestimate the economical costs associated with global warming. Passing it on to future generations on some lewd depreciation model just is not fair - nor is it realistic. We should not just find ways of tempering global warming, we also ought to find better ways of buying ourselves proper insurance for it. Before you go! Recommended:  Global Cooling Or Warming: Will It Kill Us? Did you find this an interesting article, or do you have a question or remark? Leave a comment below. We try to respond the same day. Like to write your article about rising sea levels and climate change? Send your writing & scribble with a photo to  [email protected] , and we will write an interesting article based on your input.
Stay Updated on Environmental Improvements And Global Innovations